2020 Draft Guide: Where Should We Root for Rookies to Land?
So much of fantasy basketball is about being ahead of the curve. Knowing what’s real, what’s fake, what’s just a hot streak and what’s legit. The best and smartest managers can consistently outperform their leaguemates in most of those areas, but not all calls are created equal. Most players give us some reason to be bullish or bearish, but rookies stand out. You can make an educated guess about how a first-year player will do based on their performance in college or in another professional league (that’s what we do here, after all), but there’s something about the mystery box appeal of a relative unknown that attracts fantasy GMs.
Now, while rookies do bring more variability to the table than most certified NBA players, we can take an educated guess about which ones are more likely to be worth your time as a fantasy manager. We’re going to take a look at recent rookie success stories and try to find the common threads that can help us spend our time more efficiently when trying to select the next first-year fantasy stud.
Firstly, it has to be pointed out that rookies generally aren’t the
best fantasy options. Over the last 10 seasons, only 56 players have
produced top-150 per-game value (in either 8- or 9-cat) in their first
campaigns. There have been 50 such seasons in 8-cat and 49 in 9-cat,
with plenty of overlap between the two. That means that about five
rookies per season end up being worth your while in standard 12-team
formats. Here they are:
Take note of the fact that some truly outstanding rookie classes in 2017 and 2018 drive up the average. Not every year is going to be 2016 either, but expecting to see eight or nine guys light up the league out of the gates is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
If we eliminate rookies below the top-125 on the loose assumption that there are plenty of players who can comfortably crank out late-round value – to say nothing of the surplus value you might be able to generate by selecting a pure specialist or using a roster spot or two to stream – then we’re left with 36 players in 8-cat and 33 in 9-cat. If we trim it further to top-100 guys to restrict our count to the real difference-makers, those numbers shrink to 23 in 8-cat and 21 in 9-cat. Realistically, only half of the rookies that can claim any fantasy relevance at all will be real standouts. Scooping up PJ Washington last year was a nice win on the margins, but he’s not the reason you won or lost your league.
Given the acquisition cost of most rookies, who generate lots of buzz with any standout exhibition performance, it’s paramount that you hit on these bets, if you want to dabble in this arena at all. Think of the fantasy studs who didn’t even sniff this list in their first year: Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Pascal Siakam – we’ll stop here, but the list is a long one.
Exercising a little common sense, it bears to reason that we want to chase playing time. There are a lot of other things that factor into fantasy value, but minutes reign supreme.
Working off this 10-year sample, a fantasy-relevant rookie averaged 28.5 minutes a night in his first campaign. Of the top-100 performers, only Anthony Davis (28.8), Kristaps Porzingis (28.4), Brandon Clarke (22.4), Mitchell Robinson (20.1), Jaren Jackson Jr. (26.1), Lauri Markkanen (29.7), John Collins (24.1), Kawhi Leonard (24.0) and Kenneth Faried (22.5) averaged under 30 mpg, and a lot of those guys are pretty darn close to 30. Only Davis (both), Robinson (9-cat) and Porzingis (9-cat) managed to post top-50 numbers in under 30 minutes per contest.
We’re looking for rookies who are lined up to play a lot. Playing time doesn’t always equal success, as we saw with RJ Barrett and his woeful fantasy performance last year, but it’s a good first line of defense in weeding out the contenders from the pretenders.
Of course, high picks tend to get more leeway than lower ones. Again, common sense. The average draft slot of a top-150 rookie checks in at 11.6, and 40 of the 56 were lottery selections. Eight were No. 1 picks, while 22 were top-5 selections and 34 were picked in the top-10. Eight of the last 10 No. 1 picks managed to deliver (sorry Markelle Fultz and Anthony Bennett), as did six of the last No. 2s. After that, you’re starting to play with fire a bit, as no single draft slot has produced more than four top-150 players in that 10-year span – and only two (Nos. 3 and 11) even hit that mark.
Only six second-rounders managed to break into the league with a top-150 season, and only two of them were outside the top-40: Jordan Clarkson (46), who got buckets for a woeful Lakers squad, and Isaiah Thomas (60), who put up numbers for the equally woeful Kings. Special shoutout to Yogi Ferrell, the only UDFA to pull it off in a season split between the Nets and Mavs.
One other way we can try to narrow the field is to look at which teams are primed to feed their rookies a ton of minutes. Unfortunately for the rooks, most of those teams tend to start awful and stay pretty bad.
These rookies were drafted to teams with an average winning percentage of .379, and they put up a winning percentage of .385 in their actual rookie campaigns.
Only 10 players were drafted to teams that were .500 or better the year prior: Faried, Leonard, Collins, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Trey Burke, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chandler Parsons, Iman Shumpert and Lauri Markkanen. Only 12 on the list saw their teams go .500 or better in their rookie campaigns: Faried, Leonard, Tatum, Mitchell, Gilgeous-Alexander, Shumpert, Parsons, Myles Turner, Ben Simmons, Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Parker and Landry Fields.
Aside from Simmons and Mitchell, who filled glaring holes on their respective rosters, no top-50 seasons came on winning teams. Keep that in mind while looking at next season’s class.
If the main thing a first-year player needs is a ton of minutes – which are heavily influenced by draft slot and team context – is there anything we can look at beyond playing time?
The short answer is that it helps to have some specialist appeal.
Of our 56 success stories, only 12 received under 25 minutes a night as rookies. Those 12 are Jarrett Allen, Mitchell Robinson, Andre Drummond, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Willie Cauley-Stein, Myles Turner, Kenneth Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, John Collins and Ed Davis. Notice anything in particular?
Unsurprisingly, it seems to be easier for big men to cross the top-150 threshold without the benefit of major usage. They can hit layups, gobble up rebounds and block the occasional shot whereas guards need to generate lots of points and assists while being more prone to poor percentages to boot. Of the 23 ball-handling guard types to make this list, 15 of them got over 30 mpg – that’s 50% more playing time than the lowest-minute bigs – and they account for nine of the top 10 mpg figures in this sample.
The best way to work around limited playing time is to come in with a fantasy-friendly toolkit. Each of those 12 players were simply elite in at least one category to help overcome their lack of opportunity. The best attributes for a strong immediate fantasy floor (when you aren’t seeing 30-plus mpg) are blocks and superb field goal percentage, with steals a close third.
Drummond, despite 20.7 mpg, averaged 7.6 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.6 blocks to go with a .608 mark from the field. Allen averaged 1.2 blocks in just 20.0 mpg. Robinson had had an insane 2.4 blocks in 20.6 mpg. Turner, Faried, Cauley-Stein and Collins all had at least one swat a night too. Clarke hit 61.8% of his shots. Turner’s the only player in this paragraph to shoot below .563 from the floor.
Of the non-bigs, Hollis-Jefferson nabbed 1.3 steals, as did Leonard. Thompson is the lone outlier here with most of his value carried by 1.7 3-pointers per game. That doesn’t sound impressive now, but remember that when Klay was a rookie in 2011-12, that placed him among the league’s top 30 long-range marksmen.
(That year, Ryan Anderson led the league with 2.7 per game. Last season, 79 players at least matched Thompson’s first-year output of 1.7 threes per game, with James Harden leading the way at 4.4 per contest. Times have certainly changed.)
While most rookies aren’t major fantasy players, it is worth pointing out that the cream of the crop can deliver elite production from the jump. Deandre Ayton, Mitchell Robinson, Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, John Wall and Michael Carter-Williams (one of these things is not like the other) were all good for top-50 campaigns right out of the gates, and all but one of them have remained early-round fixtures. If you really think that we’re looking at a future superstar, you could try and get out ahead of the competition – just know that the odds aren’t likely to be in your favor.
So, to wrap it all up, what are we looking for?
Above all, we want a rookie that’s going to play, and preferably play a lot. If we can find someone with Face-of-the-Franchise potential, even better. Best yet, a situation where the incumbent is an obvious seat-warmer. Something like Anthony Edwards playing behind Steph and Klay in Golden State probably won’t cut it; same for a pairing of KAT and James Wiseman or LaMelo Ball sharing the court with Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier. It could work, but it’s unlikely to deliver game-changing results.
We’d also like to invest in teams that aren’t looking so hot, since that’s where youngsters tend to play the most. That’s going to make projecting any Western Conference rookie tough, as all 15 of those squads feel they can make the playoffs. In the East it’s a little easier, with Detroit, Cleveland and Charlotte most likely out and Washington, Chicago and Atlanta toeing the line a bit despite their efforts to go for it.
With those top priorities set, Wiseman going to Charlotte, for instance, would have the alarms blaring. Ball ending up in a place like Detroit would also work out nicely in terms of a wide-open lane for production. Deni Avdija would be a snug fit for the Cavs.
Now, Wiseman going to the Warriors could definitely buck the trend, as Simmons and Mitchell did. There’s a clear need and Wiseman could step in to play a necessary role without having to shoulder an oversized burden. Ball in Minny might fit too, assuming D’Angelo Russell can play off the ball (jury’s out on that one).
Realistically, we’re unlikely to spend a lot of time thinking about someone that isn’t a top-10 selection. If we do want to find guys that don’t fit those criteria, however, we’re going to want to chase stat sets. Look for big time rim protectors or wing defenders with high steal rates. Unfortunately, we probably won’t see a repeat of Klay’s rookie year unless someone waltzes into the league and starts banging home three triples a game.
Onyeka Okongwu could be a difference maker in the blocks category. Killian Hayes has shown a proclivity for steals and might end up with heavy minutes if he gets picked by a team that’s short on guards. Devin Vassell is a 3-and-D dream, and Ashton Hagans is another player with a penchant for steals. Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu, Paul Reed, Nick Richards and Udoka Azubuike could provide enough blocks to pop in the right environment. Malachi Flynn is another player whose on-ball defense could lead to specialist numbers, and he’s a competent enough lead guard to get minutes early.
That’s just a smattering of possibilities, but rest assured there are more. The NBA draft is going to give us plenty of surprises and lots of names that weren’t necessarily linked to their eventual landing spots. Knowing what we know about which rookies tend to be successful in fantasy, however, might have you rooting a little bit differently when the picks are being made. Good luck and happy drafting.
(Look at that, a two-for-one!)
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