2022 Trade Deadline: Stash Candidates
The trade deadline represents the day on the NBA calendar with the biggest, far-reaching changes that fantasy managers will have to work with. It’s a fun day with an abundance of stories to track, and of course, transactions to make. It’s also the last true shake-up day in a fantasy season, as anything past the deadline will likely come as the result of injury news that only impacts one team at a time. On deadline day you’ll see terrific values relegated to drop territory, like Delon Wright was last season when he went from starter to third PG in the blink of an eye. On the other hand, you can find players that rise to the occasion with a change of scenery, jolted by a better fit or a chance to compete for some real-life hardware. Derrick Rose and Trevor Ariza became reasonable contributors. Kelly Olynyk won leagues for people last season.
Of course, the other situation that leads to excess fantasy value is when a player gets out from a logjam. Perhaps that young prospect will get the reins to the offense, or a team will trade away enough depth that guys are just handed minutes to play out the string of the season. With the deadline approaching swiftly, we’ve got a quick list of 10 of our top pre-deadline stash targets. We’ve limited things to guys who are reasonably available in competitive 12-team leagues — that means that Isaiah Jackson, Goga Bitadze and Onyeka Okongwu are out of contention. Hopefully these guys are the beneficiaries of some good luck and end up delivering on their fantasy upside with the help of a couple transactions.
Daniel Gafford
Gafford is the easiest name to toss on this list. He’s been dropped en masse lately as the Wizards cut him out of the rotation, instead opting to play Thomas Bryant (who needs minutes in his return from an ACL injury) and Montrezl Harrell, who is a top scoring option in the second unit. Washington’s overcrowded rotation needed a trim but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that removing Gafford is not the best solution in terms of winning games, other organizational goals be damned.
In a modest 20.6 mpg so far, Gafford is a top-120 value in 9-cat leagues. In terms of value per-36 minutes, Gafford skyrockets up to the top-80. Now, he won’t get that much to end the season, but Harrell’s contract is expiring and Bryant looks to be getting the showcase treatment lately.
Although even without the playing time, Gafford could still reach those heights — up through January 11 (Bryant debuted on the 12th), Gafford was the No. 79 value in 9-cat leagues.
It’s frustrating to sit on a player who is simply not even seeing the court, but changes will be coming in Washington, and odds are that one of them will open the center rotation back up for its most impactful presence. The Wizards continue to operate with the backdrop of Bradley Beal’s uncertain future, and keeping the status quo doesn’t seem like a move that will sell him on a long-term stay in Washington. Gafford, who signed an extension with the team this summer, could quickly go from zero to hero again.
Alperen Sengun
Everyone’s favorite. Sengun has been an all-season stash in some formats to this point, but for those of you who may still have him available, the time is now. The offensively gifted rookie has been carving out more and more playing time, and he, the coaching staff and Christian Wood have all spoken publicly about their desires to see more minutes with Sengun and Wood sharing the floor. The Rockets have walked the walk, too, elevating Sengun into the starting lineup lately and pushing both of their bigs up near 30 mpg.
Concerns about defense are valid but overblown in this particular scenario; bad teams prefer the “learn by doing” method and Sengun should have plenty of latitude to play through any growing pains, as it’s not like losses will hurt the team’s future. The early returns are encouraging; through 18 games with 20-plus minutes this season, the rookie has scored 10-plus points in 12; he also has at least five rebounds in 15, and 23 total blocks. Even more encouraging, he’s racked up all but one of those swats in hist last 18 such contests, suggesting that he is in fact getting better as he continues to gain experience.
Sengun has enough offensive talent that you can’t afford not to roll the dice, though buyers should beware at least a little bit. Production isn’t exactly scalable in a linear fashion, but it’s a start. Sengun, despite his flashes of promise, ranks just outside the top-300 in terms of per-36-minute value (after eliminating players logging under 10 mpg and who have played fewer than 10 games. Those numbers aren’t gospel and can be fuzzy since they heavily penalize players who already play a lot, but Sengun, at just 18.4 mpg on the whole season, didn’t really benefit from basically doubling his stats. Even from December 1 onward, he’s only a top-270 type.
Jeremy Lamb
The Pacers have already begun their teardown and should things continue, Lamb could be a pretty solid addition to most 12-team rosters. His standing in the current rotation is largely a result of Indiana’s depth on the wings and in the backcourt, but things are about to change there. There’s precedent for Lamb to produce even if he doesn’t rise to a can’t-miss starting role, as he was able to produce top-110 9-cat value in just 21.3 mpg last season. The year prior to that, Lamb was a top-90 guy in 28.1 mpg, which is what you’re hoping for.
While most stashes are a result of teammates being traded away, it’s also possible to envision a world where Lamb himself is traded and still ends up with reasonable value. It’s a harder needle to thread but he’s proven capable of being a solid sixth or seventh man, with late-middle round upside as long his usage is high enough. Wing-needy contenders (or simply teams that are better than the Pacers) could plug Lamb into a role that ends up safer than what he’s had in Indiana, and if he does get moved you won’t need to think about shutdown risk either.
Thad Young
Young’s a good player who’s simply been put on ice because he doesn’t fit San Antonio’s timeline. He’s been pretty solid whenever the Spurs have asked him to take the court and his skill set is one that figures to scale up as the quality of teammates increases. He’s a multi-positional defender that can initiate an offense out of the center spot, and there are a few top teams on the hunt for frontcourt upgrades.
There’s some risk involved, as Young ending up on a team like Phoenix probably ends the dream, but if he can land in a spot like Toronto or Atlanta, he should get enough minutes to matter. Last season saw Thad post top-70 value in 24.3 mpg, so he doesn’t need to end up as a clear-cut starter for things to work. Young is also someone that might be forgotten about given the fact that he’s been buried on default waiver wires by virtue of not playing, so it won’t be hard to get proactive in more casual leagues.
Isaiah Hartenstein
Serge Ibaka’s expiring deal has been in the rumor mill for most of the season, and Hartenstein has done nothing but impress when given the opportunity. He’s posted top-185 value in just 15.8 mpg, and those same per-36 numbers that should leave you a little cautious about Sengun? They have Hartenstein as a top-115 value. Even if he can settle into a solid timeshare situation, Hartenstein will be a top-150 threat with top-125 upside thanks to his blocks and strong FG%.
While the Clippers’ addition of Robert Covington could be perceived as a bad thing since it gives them a small-ball center option, it also increases the likelihood of holding a third more-traditional center, which would leave Hartenstein as the clear backup to Ivica Zubac. It’s also not clear how much the Clippers would want to lean on RoCo at center given that he’s a free agent following the season, and those are complex schemes to create for a guy who might be leaving shortly anyway.
Cam Reddish
To put it simply, if you felt Reddish was worth a late-round pick entering the season as the streakiest player in a massive Hawks wing rotation, you might as well see if he can get it going for a team with wings who are exclusively old or subpar. The Knicks are said to be working on deals that will clear a rotation spot for Reddish, who has been in Tom Thibodeau’s doghouse for reasons unknown, and odds are he’ll have the weight of the organization behind him considering what they traded to get him in the program.
Reddish’s cred as a fantasy asset remains spotty, as he’s never really been an obvious must-start when he’s not knocking down shots at a crazy clip, but he’s got a few big-picture things working in his favor. On the off chance he can play his way into Thibodeau’s good graces, Reddish could have a path to massive minutes.
Kenyon Martin Jr.
Martin, like Sengun before him, looks primed to finish strong. Martin, unlike Sengun, comes with a decent idea of what he’s actually capable of. After last season’s All-Star break, Martin was a top-120 player in 26.3 minutes a night. That’s a fairly attainable figure even if the Rockets just shed someone like Eric Gordon and pump the brakes on Christian Wood considering that Martin’s already close to the 20-minute mark. If the Rockets trade Wood then all bets will be off.
He’s an intriguing upside play that’s already averaging 1.5 combined cash counters per game, and we know that Martin can put together some big multi-cat games. While all eyes are on Sengun, there’s a not-insignificant chance that Martin ends up as the better fantasy stash on a tanking Rockets roster.
Davion Mitchell
The Kings have been playing media games, saying that De’Aaron Fox is part of the team’s core. Their behavior, and Fox’s play this season, should suggest the opposite. Mitchell’s dogged defense is something the Kings need a whole lot more of, and he can be a tone-setter for the team’s culture in the same way that Marcus Smart has been the heartbeat of some good Celtics teams. Fox’s recent “ankle injury” has already given fantasy GMs a glimpse at what Mitchell is capable of.
He’s sitting just outside the top-150 since the middle of January, with strong contributions in points (17.1), assists (4.6), steals (0.7) and threes (2.4) in a whopping 33.7 mpg. That’s not the entire picture, however, as Mitchell is dragged down by a horrid .250 mark at the charity stripe in that span. Punt builds will see Mitchell rise to top-130 value in this recent stretch, and you might not even have to go that far to get better than his overall value would have you believe — at just 0.6 free throw attempts per game, plugging Mitchell onto a roster featuring an elite FT marksman like James Harden or DeMar DeRozan would result in a pretty negligible impact.
Mitchell is still available in enough spots to make this list, though Fox’s phantom shutdown has made this one a lot less sneaky than it could’ve been.
Chimezie Metu
While a Fox move is more of a dark horse trade, Marvin Bagley seems all but gone from Sacramento. While he’s been playing as good as ever in his recent run as a starter, that should only serve to boost his trade value and entice some team into the idea of Bagley as a change-of-scenery prospect. That would open things up for Metu, who has typically been a positive impact player whenever he’s taken the floor for the Kings.
He sits just outside the top-180 on the full season, with some wild swings largely determined by which players are healthy around him — stretches without Bagley, Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes have really helped — clearing out Bagley’s minutes should get Metu back on the right side of the ledger. With Barnes also on the block, it could be open season at the PF spot. Metu’s someone to keep a very close eye on if you need boards, blocks and the occasional 3-pointer.
Jalen Smith
Smith was able to impress in his run as a starter when the Suns were missing both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee, showcasing the talent that made him a lottery pick — a surprising one, but a lottery pick nonetheless. The Suns have since signed Bismack Biyombo, however, and have already declined Smith’s option for next season. Rather than lose him for nothing it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team try and recoup some kind of asset in a trade, and any team acquiring Smith would likely be the sort that’s giving minutes to younger players.
It would take a perfect landing spot for him to come into unrivaled starter minutes again, but Smith as a rotational big could certainly be a potential late-round option, especially if his 3-point shooting can continue to improve.
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