2022 Trade Deadline: Winners & Losers
The trade deadline is one of the most enjoyable days of the entire year in fantasy, as people who obsess over fake lineups are very likely to be the same sort that are locked into the news as it’s flying around all over the place. The league saw nine trades go down today — it only felt like more than that — but the fantasy ramifications were massive. Let’s break down some of the winners, losers and guys in between from all of the action.
Winner: James Harden
Well, looks like Harden got his wish. He’s so good that it’s hard to view Harden in terms of the traditional win-lose dichotomy in fantasy, but the real victory is that The Beard should (theoretically) be pleased with his situation at long last. That’ll keep him from playing with the “get me out of here” energy that can limit his production, and with the Sixers ready for a run and Harden probably not pleased about the beating his public image is taking, we’re guessing he raises his game.
TL;DR: A content Harden means he won’t be dogging it on the court.
Winner: Ben Simmons
Simmons may be the biggest winner of the day from a fantasy perspective, as he will go from not playing at all to getting back on the court. No telling when that will be, exactly, but when he’s up to speed Simmons should be a safe top-50 to top-80 value. Setting aside all the drama of this saga and today’s trade in particular, Simmons is actually a great on-court fit for the Nets. He’s going to be able to handle the ball and distribute to lineups with solid spacing, and has a cast that’s all comfortable with playing off the ball. His defense will lift the whole team on that end of the floor and Simmons’ less assertive offensive play will allow the Nets to play a more cohesive system rather than toggle between different styles of play depending on which of their stars are healthy. Simmons needs to be on rosters in all leagues if he’s available to you in any place.
Winner: Andre Drummond
Drummond was a bit of a toss-in to the blockbuster, but he arrives in Brooklyn at a time when Nic Claxton and LaMarcus Aldridge are nursing medium-term injuries. The Nets would be wise not to build up Drummond as a key part of their rotation considering how rapidly his utility dwindles in the playoffs, but you can certainly plug him into all lineups in the regular season; especially now with those top two guys on the shelf. Drummond doesn’t need much to be a 12-team option, and can deliver a spurt of throwback early-round value if those injuries linger.
A bonus soft win to Blake Griffin, too, who might benefit from being the one big man that can kind of shoot. Drummond playing a ton with Ben Simmons doesn’t seem wise, and the Nets can easily plug in Griffin for some extra spacing up front given Simmons’ own defensive versatility.
Losers: Nic Claxton & LaMarcus Aldridge
The Nets shouldn’t hitch their wagon to Drummond like last season’s Lakers did, but he’s still good enough to soak up minutes in the regular season. That’s very bad news for two guys who basically hot-potatoed standard-league value for most of the year to begin with. It’s possible that both emerge as top-150 guys, but it’s not looking particularly likely.
TBD: Seth Curry
Curry just fits in a lot of lineup combinations with a lot of different player types, so we’re not expecting much change. He could even get a small bump if the Nets ask him to play more PG at home.
Loser: Patty Mills
Mills wasn’t a can’t-miss fantasy option or anything of the sort, but he’s generally been good enough to be rostered since Joe Harris went down with his ankle injury. The arrival of Curry will definitely push Mills back to a more customary sixth man role, and presumably the same customary top-180ish value. You can hold on for a couple games to see what shakes out but odds are Mills becomes more of a 14-team guy over time.
Loser: Richaun Holmes
After the Kings traded for Domantas Sabonis, it was expected that another big move was coming in the PF/C equation. Unfortunately, none came to pass with either Holmes or Harrison Barnes, but Holmes is the player whose outlook is the most severely damaged. His quiet game (off the bench) in Sabonis’ debut was concerning, but he also picked up two fouls after two minutes, so there’s just enough there to give him another chance. We’ve seen Holmes getting dropped in a few places already and while that’s a bit too far this quickly, there’s no denying that things are heading in that direction.
Loser: Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis has been catching tons of flak for his postseason, injury history and playing style. A good bit of that is warranted, but it belies the fact that KP has been a top-20 fantasy guy this season. Unfortunately, the Mavs had seen enough of the Porzingis experience and wanted off his massive contract, taking on two almost-as-bad deals to achieve that end. Now, Porzingis has enough talent that you could conceivably pitch Bradley Beal that he’s a solid No. 2 option, and the Wizards have a little extra money to add other pieces, but for the rest of this season things are looking dicey. Porzingis is already sidelined by a right knee bone bruise and the shutdown risk is extremely high. It’s also questionable whether Porzingis surrounded by complementary players will be as effective as a fantasy guy as he was playing alongside Luka Doncic. He’ll still be solid when he plays, but can you expect that with any certainty?
Winner: Maxi Kleber
Kleber won’t light the world on fire, but he’s a solid late-round guy and should be added for his rebounds, blocks and triples. He shouldn’t have a problem getting into the top-130 or so.
Bonus, unrelated win to Dorian Finney-Smith for securing the bag. What a solid player.
Winner: Daniel Gafford
Gafford was one of our top pre-deadline stash targets and our concerns with Porzingis are well-documented (literally above this). Montrezl Harrell is gone and there were already reports that the Wizards are going to prioritize youth development, so things are looking good for Gafford. Make sure he’s not on any waiver wires.
TBD: Spencer Dinwiddie
Dinwiddie started hot and predictably faded in Washington, where he never seemed comfortable — on and off the court. The Wizards bailed on the last two years of his $54 million contract and he’ll provide Dallas a secondary ball-handler and perimeter defender, though it’s hard to see how a weak shooter like that shines alongside Luka Doncic. If it didn’t go well playing off the ball in Washington, it shouldn’t work in Dallas. Dinwiddie could excel if he gets to run the second unit but we think he’ll stay in his late-round space, with only borderline viability in 12-team 9-cat leagues.
Winner: Montrezl Harrell
Harrell escapes a drowning Washington team that was potentially going to dial back his minutes and ends up with an offense-only squad that loves to run and put up points. Even if he settles in as the backup to Mason Plumlee, Harrell should be able to maintain similar workloads going forward. That’s been enough for him to hold late-round appeal and he won’t be stuck in a timeshare anymore, either.
Loser: PJ Washington
Harrell’s addition is bad news for Washington, though we’re not expecting him to take a big dip while Gordon Hayward (left ankle sprain) is out indefinitely. In the big picture, Harrell’s presence will take some small-ball center minutes away from Washington, and the PF group is very crowded when the Hornets are healthy. Keep rolling with Washington for now but don’t be surprised if he hits the skids later in the year.
Loser: Derrick White
White is a very good player who will help the Celtics a lot, and they didn’t pay through the nose to get him. Unfortunately, the Cs also kept Marcus Smart, giving them two solid defensive guards who are a bit duplicative. White’s not going to get the same usage on a competitive team that he did for the rebuilding Spurs, and while his stat set is so well-rounded that he’ll maintain easy start appeal in 12-team leagues, you are going to have to downgrade him a couple rounds.
Loser: Marcus Smart
A lot of what’s been written about White applies to Smart, only Smart didn’t cost a first-round pick this afternoon and has been featured in trade rumors on and off for a few years. If the Celtics can’t break through they now have a pretty clear idea of which “core” guy is the most expendable.
Winner: Thad Young
Young, like Ben Simmons, is a winner simply in that he’s going to play. He can be a top-85 guy in about 24 mpg and gives the Raptors a ton of attributes they were missing on the front line, so we’re guessing he gets at least 20 a night. His playmaking and defense will fit right in. Young’s a quality add in 12-team leagues.
TBD: Chris Boucher
Young’s arrival is going to impact the frontcourt rotation, which means it’s a nervous time for people invested in Chris Boucher. After a dreadful start to the season (by his own admission, even), Boucher has settled down and is starting to make a positive on-court impact with regularity. That should put him a cut above Precious Achiuwa in the rotation and keep him steady at 18 mpg or above, which will be enough to scrape by in 12-team leagues. We can’t tell you that it’ll be a stress-free ride, but it should be fine by the end of the season.
Winner: Marvin Bagley
Bagley gets out of a team that had no future plans for him, and heads to a team that’s long been interested that also has no reason not to give him a steady role. The stat set looks fairly flimsy but Bagley has late-round potential as a nightly double-double threat.
Loser: Kelly Olynyk
On the flip side, Olynyk stayed with the Pistons, who swapped out Trey Lyles for Bagley and decided to keep Jerami Grant. It looks like it’ll take injuries for Olynyk to get back on the 12-team radar with any consistency, which is a real shame.
Winner: Buddy Hield
A little bit like Bagley, Hield’s a winner simply for getting away from a toxic situation. The Pacers have really upped their shooting and defense over the last week and it’s a good path to take in the modern NBA. Hield’s a good fit there and should get his shots up, with a team that dealt away plenty of wing depth and that’s trying to see who fits long-term. If you can get him cheaply, which shouldn’t be hard given the way things ended with the Kings, we could envision a world where Hield closes the year on a familiar top-100 pace.
Loser: Cam Reddish
The Knicks were expected to make some kind of trade to clear up their wing group — and recent rumors even had them trading Reddish himself — but nothing came to pass. Tom Thibodeau is still calling the shots and Reddish is still outside the circle of trust. Oh, and Derrick Rose (ankle surgery) is going to be back, too. It can’t sit well with the front office that they traded a first-round pick to watch their guy get DNP-CDs, but they also didn’t force the issue on Thursday.
Loser: The Lakers
Yikes, guys.
Loser: Dennis Schroder
Schroder had clearly fallen out of favor in Boston, getting cut from closing lineups and slowly ceding time over the course of the campaign. It only compounded matters when the Celtics started winning as his minutes fell, and his tradeable contract looked like a sure thing to move today. With Schroder offering reasonable sixth man skills and some good teams apparently kicking the tires, it felt like a sure thing for Schroder to end up in a better spot. So naturally, he ends up with the tanking Rockets, who were able to get out of Daniel Theis’ contract by taking on Schroder. It’s hard to see how he’s a priority for the organization at all, and if he stays in Houston there’s no guarantees that he plays. There were only a couple situations that were obvious downgrades and headaches for Schroder, but he found one of them.
Winner: Donte DiVincenzo
The Kings have gone from have no solid true wings for a few years to filling up the roster in the last few days, and their pursuit of DiVincenzo has been a long time coming. He’ll be a restricted free agent this summer but if his shooting bounces back there’s a very nice fit here alongside a Sabonis/Fox foundation. DDV has been a top-100 player in the past and will certainly get more run in Sacramento than he did for the Bucks this season, so even if it’s a bit crowded he’s in line for a decent finish.
TBD: Jeremy Lamb
The DiVincenzo add complicates matters but Lamb has proven capable of 12-team viability with only 24 mpg in the past. Davion Mitchell’s not getting his minutes cut and this could all ride on exactly how much the Kings want Domantas Sabonis at PF instead of C. Lamb has a shot at top-125 production but it’s a lot less of a sure thing than it was 24 hours ago.
Winner: Kenrich Williams
Williams is one for the fantasy diehards, and the Thunder did well by that group in keeping him past the deadline. While he would fit just about any roster, Williams has the easiest access to minutes, multiple roles and fantasy production as a key cog in the Thunder’s ever-changing machine. A contending team would’ve given him 16 minutes in a pure supporting role, but Kenny Hustle lives on.
Winner: Serge Ibaka
Ibaka looked cooked for most of the year but has had a few vintage games, including a little run recently when the Clippers asked him to start. He now heads to a Bucks team that has no real frontcourt options beyond Bobby Portis at the moment (ignoring Giannis’ freakishness), and if Ibaka can get up to 18 minutes a night he’ll be someone to keep tabs on in 16-teamers.
Loser: Jalen Smith
Alas, not everything is roses in Indiana. Smith, who was a must-start guy earlier this season when the Suns were shorthanded, ended up getting dealt to a team with Goga Bitadze, Isaiah Jackson and eventually, Myles Turner at the center spot. The dream is over.
Winner, then Loser but still relative Winner: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Alexander-Walker was looking like a great speculative add when he was briefly a member of the Blazers, but a trade to the Jazz significantly dampens his appeal. He’s got a chuck-first game that recalls that of Jordan Clarkson, who he’ll now split time with in the backcourt. NAW should help fill in for Joe Ingles’ absence but his inconsistency may be too much to overcome on a team with title hopes. That said, the Jazz’s secondary contributors are about to age out of the picture, and seeing how a cheap, raw player like Alexander-Walker fits for the future should definitely be in Utah’s plans. It’s not quite as nice as it could’ve been in Portland, but at the very least NAW is in a better developmental environment than he started with and may be someone the team is actually going to invest in.
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