Weekly Report: Halfway Home
It’s also important to know that any good fantasy league is past its halfway point already — you should end your fantasy seasons a couple weeks early so you’re not having championships decided by random scrubs in silly season, and that’s coming from this site’s biggest fan of random scrubs. It may not feel like it, but you’re running out of time to make your moves.
Good Surprise
Last week (Monday-Sunday) didn’t feature too many surprises, but the biggest one had to be Killian Hayes finishing at No. 10 in 9-cat. He’s on fire of late and is finally living up to the pre-draft hype, which is nice to see. Development isn’t linear and while the Pistons would prefer that it wasn’t so directly a product of Cade Cunningham’s absence, they’ll take it and run.
Right behind Hayes was Christian Wood. The reason? An .833 mark from the charity stripe. That has been the only thing holding Wood back in recent seasons, and while we don’t expect this to stick, it’s a reminder that he can be a top-35 guy if he’s even average at the line.
Bad Surprise
Steven Adams was down at No. 305 because he shot .375 from the charity stripe, but that’s so expected (and so irrelevant, given that Adams-having teams are punting FT% already) that we’ll hunt elsewhere.
Jrue Holiday settled in at No. 281 but only played two games, so even that is tough to get worked up about. The absences suck more than the weak play; you know Holiday will bounce right back.
The real disappointment is probably Al Horford at No. 254, and that’s something that has been simmering for a while now. One of the reasons we were worried about Horford heading into fantasy drafts was his playing time, especially on a team that really didn’t have much to work at in the regular season. He ended up with 25.7 mpg and one steal and no blocks in three games. Keeping him healthy for the playoffs is a top concern, and although Horford has the stat set to support 12-team value, managers need to prepare for more of a late-round effort moving forward.
No Surprise
Regretfully, Landry Shamet checking in at No. 237 shouldn’t be a shock. He’s getting tons of minutes and has a few big games under his belt, but Shamet is not going to produce value on high volume. It’s not in his nature. He shot .318 from the field. You’re already not super worried about FG% if you bothered picking Shamet up, however, and the upside in points and triples may be worth it depending on your roster, but it’s a reminder that massive usage isn’t the cure-all that it might look like.
Here’s another one for you: Alperen Sengun. Last week he averaged 16.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.0 blocks (plus 2.8 turnovers) in 28.8 mpg while shooting .532 from the field and .739 at the line. How does that feel? You’d be happy with that if it showed up in the box score, right?
He finished at No. 127. Sengun is good and the Rockets should use him more than they are, but his stat set isn’t the best we’ve ever seen. Marginal improvement across the box is well within reach but if Sengun doesn’t make a couple of those steps he’s going to stay overrated.
30 Thoughts
Atlanta: The Hawks have had John Collins on the trade market for three seasons and now the asking price goes up as the team falters? Doesn’t make sense. Rip this band-aid off and trade the man already. Atlanta looks to have fooled themselves on their miracle run to the Conference Finals after beating a laughably dysfunctional Sixers team during a pandemic season. A lot had to go right to even get that far and some retooling is needed, because the current mix is just not it.
Brooklyn: There’s some potential for 12-team output as depth players spill into the void that Kevin Durant leaves behind. TJ Warren has gotten most of the talk but Yuta Watanabe, because of his steals and blocks, might actually be the more interesting fantasy player — unless you’re just chasing points. We’ll see if this window can get Joe Harris rolling again, too.
Boston: Not much to go on here, you know what this team does night-in and night-out. Just make sure that Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White are rostered.
Charlotte: And you thought Gordon Hayward got his long-term injury out of the way early this year…
Chicago: Like the Hawks, the Bulls are another team that’s got to blow it up. Lonzo Ball was the connective tissue that brought all of their stars together and without him there’s just no fit. Patrick Williams may be assuming a bigger offensive role to close out the season.
Cleveland: Donovan Mitchell should get some Most Improved Player nods. There’s a hot take for you.
Dallas: What a fantasy wasteland. It almost makes you pine for the days of hoping that Dorian Finney-Smith could sort things out and make the jump from top-190 to top-150.
Denver: Bruce Brown has taken a little bit of a hit since the Nuggets got healthy, but he was top-55 last week. The guy just rises to the top on every team he’s ever been on.
Detroit: Nerlens Noel is absolutely someone you need to be monitoring as a second-half stash. Contending teams need rim protection, and Noel is at least going to get regular minutes in some place that’s not Detroit. It doesn’t take much to get him in the mix because of his steals and blocks.
Golden State: The only question here is how long it takes Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins to shake off the rust. Jordan Poole, and to a lesser extent Donte DiVincenzo, were able to deliver some productive runs of late and the hope is that they can carry that over in decreased roles. If they can, the Warriors are as dangerous as anyone.
Houston: This would be an immensely fun team if they played with any kind of structure. Right now it looks like an environment where the bad habits are going to become ingrained by the time the team gets good, a la Philadelphia, unless there’s some sort of hard stance taken by the organization. We’re not saying they need to add a bunch of old-timers to take away playing time, but so much of what Houston does looks like a bunch of guys freelancing.
Indiana: The Pacers are surpassing expectations so far, which covers up some of the criticism, but Rick Carlisle doesn’t seem to be doing a great job with Jalen Smith and Isaiah Jackson, who will undoubtedly be part of the team’s long-term future. We hate to keep beating this drum, but it’s weird. The team isn’t that close to contention and for two young frontcourt guys — including one who re-signed to be a starter — getting basically iced out is odd.
LA Clippers: Ty Lue finally pulled the plug on his veteran PGs. They’re just not very good, and while 40-plus minutes of Terance Mann isn’t the answer, full marks to him for trying something different. The regular season is all about experimentation for this team anyway.
Los Angeles Lakers: Have the Lakers juiced Russell Westbrook’s value enough to pawn him off on another team at the deadline? It remains to be seen, but credit goes to Darvin Ham and Westbrook himself for embracing the bench role.
Memphis: Desmond Bane is the quietest top-40 guy around. The Grizzlies can hit another gear with him back. One wonders how high he would’ve gone in the draft had his arms been longer.
Miami: Another week, another dose of five or six Heat being injured. It’s exhausting. Max Strus is good, Gabe Vincent is alright with enough injuries, good luck everyone else.
Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo has slowed down lately, and it feels like all of those deep playoff runs are starting to add up, especially as his supporting cast has either been out or not all that great this year (Brook Lopez excepted). He finished at No. 228 last week thanks to 6.7 turnovers per game and is taking on an immense burden with Khris Middleton basically vanishing into the shadow realm. The Greek Freak looks tired, which is something fantasy managers will have to think about given the Bucks’ focus on the postseason — and keeping their top guys in shape for that part of the calendar.
Minnesota: Huge Kyle Anderson fan, personally, but the fact that his absence has such a major impact on the Wolves’ ability to run an offense is a blaring red alarm. Things are very off here. It’s good for Anderson’s fantasy outlook, at least.
New Orleans: Three cheers for Naji Marshall, who has been excellent in a major role as the Pels’ injury troubles have extended for quite a while. He’s not exactly providing dominant production but he’s a bankable late-round guy you can turn to at any moment given the team’s hurting wings and forwards.
New York: Time to see if Immanuel Quickley can stick as a fantasy option as the sixth man. The Knicks only give six guys legitimate playing time anyway, so at least he’s got a shot at it.
Oklahoma City: Jalen Williams is at least a steady presence. Don’t take that for granted given how much of a mess the frontcourt is; for a rookie who is still relatively raw to lock down a starting spot and deliver good fantasy value is impressive.
Orlando: Jonathan Isaac is finally, mercifully on a G League assignment. We’ll see how he fares. Isaac is way better than the competition level there but it’s a big step in his return, and he’s worth stashing away in fantasy leagues. The Magic roster basically has one good option among players who aren’t centers or point guards, so Isaac’s return would be big.
Philadelphia: Don’t panic about De’Anthony Melton moving back to the bench.
Phoenix: Jae Crowder must have a serious bone to pick to not come back, get a bunch of extra shots he doesn’t deserve, and then get traded after inflating his value. The Suns are a mess right now and even Mr. Reliable Mikal Bridges is not in peak form.
Portland: Gary Payton II is back and he’s a potential serious impact player for Portland. His stat set can get him into the 12-team conversation without a bunch of playing time and he’s someone that could get you good numbers in a month when he’s all-the-way back.
Sacramento: Keegan Murray is getting back on track, so hopefully you bought low.
San Antonio: Fantasy GMs have a lot of choices and none of them inspiring here. Devin Vassell’s injury opens up a lot of work, but you can’t really trust any of the replacements in 12-team leagues. You can’t even trust Keldon Johnson, who has sunk back into bad habits with his empty, inefficient lines of late.
Toronto: Chris Boucher and Precious Achiuwa were a big part of the team’s improvement last year; with both healthy again it may give the Raptors more stability in the second unit. As that happens, you’ll see slightly less playing time for the starters, which helps everyone in the long run.
Utah: The Raptors are getting a lot of buzz as the team that can shape the deadline, but the Jazz are right there with them. Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt are all guys that could move, and if the Raptors improve enough to turn down offers for their top dogs, Utah’s got the best set of players that a contender could pry away.
Washington: Daniel Gafford’s run with the Wizards has been a bit odd, given that the team stuck him in a mega timeshare last year after forking over a contract extension, but he’s returned to must-start status (injuries aside) now that he’s been plugged back in as a starter.
Deep League Darts
We touched on Jalen Williams before but it’s another Williams who managers in 16-team leagues might enjoy. Kenrich! He’s able to contribute rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and 3-pointers on a nightly basis and his versatility does give him the best path to consistent playing time, even if it’s only for around 24 minutes a night. We’ve seen him deliver solid fantasy numbers in the past and OKC’s frontcourt injuries should allow for that again.
In 18-team formats, Cody Martin should not be available. He hasn’t been shooting well since his return but has immediately jumped into 20-plus mpg with Gordon Hayward out, and there’s going to be enough rebounds, assists, steals and triples to tide you over until some jumpers start to fall. He’ll go higher than this by the end of the year but he’s worth adding immediately in these formats.
20-team managers can consider picking through the Suns frontcourt amid Deandre Ayton’s injury troubles; Jock Landale is probably the better choice given the likelihood that he gets more playing time, but if you need blocks then Bismack Biyombo is viable too. One would be a higher priority add if it wasn’t close to a pure timeshare.
Final Thoughts
Feels like we’ll get a bunch of big transactions this year as there are a couple teams who haven’t come along as expected, as well as a potential generational talent available at the top of the draft. Teams on the edge of the Play-In would be better off hoping to get the top pick than getting dusted in the first round, so we may end up with some extended silly season. Should be a big opportunity for attentive and handsome fantasy GMs, just like you.
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