Weekly Report: The Clipper Conundrum

As if last season’s injuries weren’t enough, the Clippers are going through it again, albeit in a less severe way. The team’s sluggish start, as we’ve written here before, looked like a mental deflation when a team was told it’d be getting Kawhi Leonard back, only for him to disappear under mysterious circumstances. He returned, but now both he and Paul George are sidelined and have never really been given clear timetables for return.

With George, it’s pretty simple. You sit and wait for him to get back in action while hoping that it won’t be long. It’s with Leonard, whose random vanishing acts are inherently frustrating on their own, that bigger decisions come into play.

Some managers who are sick of the waiting, and know that another period like this will be coming down the line, are willing to sell low and just wash their hands of the situation. It’s hard to hate that stance given how annoying it’s been, but that’s obviously not the best solution on paper.

If you want to play that game — either trading Leonard away or getting him at a steep discount — it just depends on the market price in your league. Maybe Kawhi’s manager just wants to be done and will take someone like Buddy Hield. Maybe the Kawhi manager knows that selling low is a bad idea and will maintain a high price, demanding someone like Brandon Ingram, or a two-for-one that involves someone in the Devin Vassell range. There’s a lot of ways to spin a Leonard trade in either direction.

Personally, that doesn’t sound like a great proposition unless you can get a higher-end guy in return. Trading away someone who can be a top-15 value for potentially the rest of the season — we don’t know when he’ll be back, it could be tomorrow! — in exchange for a middle-round option just to get rid of a headache isn’t going to yield any wins. And while you could argue that Leonard is just as likely to miss multiple more weeks at a time, that’s fair, but not necessarily an overwhelming probability. Neither outcome would be a shock, which is what makes the Kawhi situation so difficult to manage in fantasy. Right now, he’s all things to all observers, and you can comfortably project whatever you want onto Leonard’s season outlook and go from there.

More broadly, it’s a nice reminder that peace of mind is sort of its own fantasy category, and if you don’t target it on draft day you might never be able to get there. Nobody ever goes on my Do Not Draft List (with a couple exceptions that generally have nothing to do with actual fantasy value), but dealing with stuff like this gets baked into the valuation when you’re staring at the big board.

Good Surprise

Hello, Shake Milton, cruising into the No. 4 spot last week. One backcourt injury opened the door but two threw it wide open for Milton, who has stepped up as a scorer with Philly badly in need of some secondary scoring. While he’s an obvious must-start player until further notice, this is the sort of run that could impact the team’s rotation all year long. Milton was a regular DNP-CD just a couple weeks ago and Doc Rivers might not be able to justify cutting him out entirely again after this kind of run. That’ll only be of note to deep-league GMs but it’s not nothing. If you were lucky enough to get Milton off waivers, odds are you fared pretty well last week. Condolences to anyone whose strong weeks may have been wiped out by facing Shake, however.

Marvin Bagley checked in at No. 41, shooting efficiently from the field and line while adding some defensive stats. Of course he does this right as Isaiah Stewart returns. If you put up with his mediocrity for a couple weeks it was a nice parting gift, but Bagley is unlikely to hold 12-team value with Stewart back in action. You can hold on for another few games just in case but the odds aren’t in his favor.

Bad Surprise

Joe Harris isn’t quite a 12-team guy this year and last week won’t help his case. He was able to post a few decent games but went right into the tank, finishing at No. 374, averaging 2.5 points per game in 16.4 minutes while shooting .125 from the field. Averaging under a 3-pointer per game — in the points column — is not going to get it done.

Next up would be Kevin Porter Jr., who finished at No. 291 in 9-cat rankings. It’s not exactly a surprise given the well known issues with his fantasy game, but it is disappointing. We got the full Bad KPJ experience as he shot .379 on over 14 shots per game and .625 at the line while committing 4.5 turnovers per contest too. The rebounds and assists were still there but Porter is still prone to wild swings in quality.

Speaking of guys whose stat lines look better than they actually are, John Wall checked in at No. 288, averaging 13.8 points, 5.3 assists and 1.3 triples on .545 shooting in 22.3 mpg. Of course, he also averaged 0.3 steals and shot .636 from the line while committing 3.8 turnovers a night. If you only really contribute in two categories, you’d better be elite in them — and you certainly can’t be a zero or negative in others.

No Surprise

Two boring ones this week. One one end of the spectrum, we have Gary Harris, who was a top-140 guy thanks to 12.0 points, 1.7 triples and 0.7 steals on .464 from the floor and perfect free throw shooting. He played 26.3 mpg, which might be the most important number there overall. He offers a skill set that nobody else on the Magic does and will be the team’s go-to wing guy, so don’t forget about Harris if you need a late-round presence to give you a little support in a few categories.

On the other end, you have Marcus Morris, who fell outside the top-200 last week and appears to be fading after a hot start to the year. He’s locked into a starting spot, seemingly for the long haul, but he will have weeks like last where he shoots .411 from the floor and doesn’t make up for it with extra production elsewhere. While Morris’ role suggests he could hold 12-team value, he’s no longer a must-start, and not quite a must-hold depending on who’s on your waiver wire.

30 Thoughts

Atlanta: Justin Holiday seems like a player that could turn into something for the Hawks at the deadline. Already out of the rotation in Atlanta, some wing-needy team should be hitting the phones to see if they can pry him away. We’re past the days of Holiday being a 12-team guy but he can be effective for deeper leagues if he actually gets on the court.

Brooklyn: Shoutout to Nic Claxton, who has just put his head down and piled up great game after great game amid all the extra drama in Brooklyn. Guy’s good, and thankfully there’s no DeAndre Jordan equivalent around to push him out the way Jarrett Allen was.

Boston: Double dipping a bit since we talked about him last week but Derrick White is a top-70 option in 9-cat so far this season, actually tops among the Boston backcourt. That defensive ability will take you a long way.

Charlotte: The Hornets can’t seem to catch a break. Even poor Mason Plumlee is cooling off, but at least he isn’t hurt.

Chicago: Lonzo Ball doesn’t seem particularly close to being close to being evaluated for a timeline for return. It’s a shame to see injuries derail him to this extent; Ball is a truly dynamic player and a big part of why Chicago was so successful early last season.

Cleveland: Lamar Stevens as a starter is a little odd but he’s a decent player who can stay within himself. Fantasy GMs won’t be too thrilled but if he can just make the right play and hit the shots that fall in his lap, there might be top-200 numbers here.

Dallas: A Western Conference Finalist just signed a point guard off the street a quarter of the way into the season. Seems like the Mavs are ducking some deserved heat for their roster construction at the moment. We’ll believe it when we see it in regards to Kemba Walker’s fantasy value.

Denver: Vlatko Cancar getting a crack at regular playing time should catch your eye in 20-team leagues. He’s been dealt a bad hand in terms of injuries to begin his career but Cancar did post a few compelling lines before last season’s foot troubles. Jeff Green will return and knock Cancar back to the bench eventually but Michael Malone doesn’t seem afraid to simply play the guys who are helping his team win.

Detroit: The rumors of the Pistons listening to offers for Saddiq Bey leaking right as they bench him sure is interesting. The front office seems hell-bent on justifying the Marvin Bagley contract, fit with the team be damned. Of course, what the Pistons do while Cade Cunningham (shin) is out is really secondary to improving their lottery odds anyway.

Golden State: Donte DiVincenzo may finally be getting out of his rut, though we’ll still need to see him stay productive when Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole are playing well in order to believe again. Deep-league GMs take note.

Houston: Jabari Smith Jr. was a top-25 guy last week. He averaged 18 & 11 with four 3-pointers and a block per game, all while shooting .393 from the field. When he regains the touch he displayed at Auburn, it’ll be lights out.

Indiana: It’s not unprecedented but it’s pretty absurd that Tyrese Haliburton is leading the league in double-doubles. As a skeptic who typically passes on guys being drafted to produce career-best seasons, Haliburton transcended those doubts, personally. He’s so good.

LA Clippers: The Robert Covington situation is both weird and a bummer. There’s a solid fantasy player there still but he hasn’t been asked to play a ton, or even every night, even with the team’s injuries. He’s elite depth and can give the Clips quality play at a moment’s notice but it sure would be nice if he could end up in fantasy lineups again.

Los Angeles Lakers: Dennis Schroder starting isn’t going to fix the problems, and he’s in the Marvin Bagley territory of being someone you have to think about in the sense that they’re starting and could rack up stats, but not someone you actually need to think about as a real asset for your fantasy roster.

Memphis: My love affair with John Konchar knows no bounds. Let the man play and rake in the stats.

Miami: The Heat made it through a pretty rough patch — don’t let the 12-man injury report fool you, most of their guys are good enough to play again. We’ll see if this early adversity inspires them to rally; the Heat seem like a team that would love that sort of narrative, even if fantasy GMs are ticked off every afternoon when 40% of the rotation is questionable.

Milwaukee: Grayson Allen finished as a top-35 player last week, likely all because of the first half on Sunday. If you streamed him, you should’ve bought a lottery ticket instead.

Minnesota: The Karl-Anthony Towns injury might force some addition by subtraction on Minnesota. Not to suggest that the team is better without KAT, but this could be the slap in the face they need to lock in and find an edge. Injured Star theory and all that, only over a month when they know that Towns won’t be there as a bailout guy. Kyle Anderson is the guy you want to add in fantasy, with Jaylen Nowell behind him.

New Orleans: Trey Murphy seems to move on and off fantasy rosters a lot but he’s a middle-round guy on the full season and the Pels are happy to toss him out on the floor. Seems like a guy who should have a bit more stability in the fantasy space.

New York: Tom Thibodeau must really not like Cam Reddish. An injury to Quentin Grimes was the only reason Reddish played on opening night, and then after a solid run as a starter, it was his injury that allowed Grimes to get back in the mix. Reddish was playing reasonably well before getting hurt but it looks like the door is shut on him again.

Oklahoma City: If we can’t write in Shai Alexander-Gilchrist as an All-Star starter, we’ve failed as a community.

Orlando: Not at all interested in putting up with the Orlando backcourt, which looks like it’ll finally be at full strength in the near future. The stat sets all have major issues and without the guaranteed volume that can overcome that sort of problem, it’s going to be tough. If you have to choose, Markelle Fultz has the most to offer, with Cole Anthony behind him and Jalen Suggs pulling up the rear.

Philadelphia: PJ Tucker refusing to even shoot the ball is incredible. Keep going PJ. I want one of those old Tony Snell lines but only Tucker does it intentionally.

Phoenix: The Suns continue to tinker with their frontcourt rotation and lately it’s been ex-NFLer Ish Wainright who’s caught some eyes. Perhaps that’s not surprising, with Deandre Ayton surging and limiting the need for a traditional big as the backup. Whatever the case, Wainright’s a great story and a funky player. Fantasy value is out of the question for most managers but his presence changes the geometry of the floor in a unique way for a team that has mostly big centers.

Portland: Like a fool, I am completely on board with Justise Winslow. Love players who can deliver in multiple categories. Yes, the efficiency stinks, but that’s why he’s even available to be discussed anyway. If he did what he does in the counting stats while going .480 from the field, you’d have a must-start guy.

Sacramento: Tough week for the Kings, who had no top-100 fantasy players last week. They’ll bounce back but it is interesting the trickle-down effect that it has when the team’s defense just isn’t quite right.

San Antonio: Let’s see what Zach Collins has in the tank. He’s worth scooping in all formats with upside and opportunity on a collision course given the injury to Jakob Poeltl.

Toronto: Intrigued by the idea of Gary Trent Jr. coming off the bench. The Raptors actually have a legitimate bench this year and being able to stagger their top perimeter shot-makers could help the team, even if it lowers Trent’s fantasy ceiling. We’ll see how it plays out because it’s also not impossible that GTJ thrives in this new role.

Utah: Jarred Vanderbilt hasn’t taken off but he is still a top-120 guy, and that’s with really weak block numbers. He’s a sneaky buy-low if there ever was one; the floor isn’t even killing you as it is now.

Washington: Bradley Beal’s inside the top-20. The market seemed a little too low on him during draft season; if you thought last season’s injuries would linger you weren’t taking him at his ADP, and if you thought he’d bounce back he was an easy pick in a messy second round.

Deep League Darts

How’d we do last week? For 16-teamers, we endorsed Oshae Brissett, who ended up at No. 178. That’s a little victory, even if Brissett didn’t light the world on fire. Some better shooting (.364 from the field and .556 at the line) would’ve made this a much more positive pick. For 18-teamers, we called out Danuel House, who ended up outside the top-300 as Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz caught fire, icing him out to under 15 mpg. Chimezie Metu was a reasonable call for 20-teamers, though, as he finished as No. 255 despite no defensive stats. When those start to trickle in it’ll be a clearer win.

As for this week…

Quentin Grimes deserves a very long look in 16-team formats. He’s not the most inspiring player but the Knicks seem to want to give him a run as the starter. It’s a job he was given when Cam Reddish got hurt but he’s holding it even with Reddish back, so he’ll get more than a fair shake.

Last week we picked House, this week we’re going to pick the guy whose hot shooting turned the House pick into an L. Furkan Korkmaz is as good a bet as any if you need a 3-point specialist, with some extra scoring upside as the Sixers battle serious injuries.

Mike Conley’s absence won’t go on forever but it’s given Nickeil Alexander-Walker a crack at rotation minutes again. It’s insane to think that he was a sleeper pick in last season’s drafts; we’ll see if he can get his career back on track in this window of opportunity. He’s an upside swing in 20-teamers.

Injuries have created a path for Kai Jones to get minutes in Charlotte, even though it’s hard to be too intrigued by a third center. In regular minutes he’s worth a kicking of the tires in ultra deep leagues.

Final Thoughts

Dorian Finney-Smith was a top-50 value last week and has climbed into the top-150 on the full season. He’s never at risk of seeing his minutes cut and the only thing that looks out of order is a ridiculously low 3-point percentage. Not everyone had the stomach to wait for him to hit rock bottom and bounce back up, but there should be at least one manager in every league who can make space for him on the upswing. Finney-Smith won’t single-handedly win you a league but he’s the sort of vital glue guy that can keep you from dropping too many categories when one of your studs gets hurt or hits the skids. It’s time to pick him up again.

*Originally published November 30, 2022