It happens every year in every league. Someone gets pulled in by the siren song of a big name who’s on the downslope.

In many ways, it’s hard to blame someone who takes a guy like that. They’re a known entity with a track record of success. Father time is undefeated, but maybe this guy is the one who can put up a good fight. He’s been so good for so long, why not take one more shot at it?

There are a few players who age like a fine wine but there are even more who will be over-drafted and under-deliver for fantasy owners. Our goal is to find the ones who can hack it as a value play and who’s best left to your hopeful leaguemates.

Matt Barnes, Sacramento Kings, 36

Barnes has seemingly been around forever, which is really just a natural occurrence when someone’s played for nine teams. Regardless, Matt Barnes soldiers on as the backup to Rudy Gay out in Sacramento.

He’ll be doing his usual thing out in the California capital, coming off the bench to play some defense and get under the skin of his opponents. We saw what Barnes could do with some offensive responsibilities at times in Memphis last season but it’d be foolhardy to expect that kind of usage again. He’ll approach double digit points and be good for at least a triple per night with a smattering of other stats.

There’s also the matter of the perpetual Rudy Gay trade talk. If Gay were to finally be shipped out of town, Barnes could stand to take on extra minutes if the return doesn’t include some wing help. Even if that scenario never comes to pass, Barnes should have some value. It won’t always be pretty on a night to night basis but Barnes can definitely finish in the top 150.

Andrew Bogut, Dallas Mavericks, 31

Thirty one years young might not seem old, but Bogut sure feels like an old 31. The leg injuries have been contributed to that phenomenon and it seems like most fantasy owners will shy away from Bogut now that he’s not part of the whirring stat factory in Golden State.

Don’t make that mistake. Bogut won’t be on the national stage nearly as often but should prove to be a winning fantasy pick. His passing acumen should pair well with Rick Carlisle’s basketball wizardry and it’s a safe bet that more of the offense will run through him than it ever did on the coast. Consider Zaza Pachulia’s fantasy productivity last year. Now think about Andrew Bogut and his larger skillset soaking up those minutes- more than he got with the Warriors, I might add.

Expect him to approach a double-double while chipping in close to two blocks per night. There’s really not a ton to dislike past the inevitable batch of missed games. He can be a steady presence on any fantasy roster and should be a solid pick in the early-late rounds. The fact that he’ll probably slip beyond that makes him a good value selection.

Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers, 36

J-Crossover is still going strong as a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He’s a fine piece of the bench for the Clips and will key their second unit attack.

That doesn’t mean he’s worth the ride in fantasy, however. Crawford can definitely chip in when he’s hot (particularly from three), but he’s essentially dead weight if the shot isn’t falling. With his shot percentage hovering around .400 on double digit attempts per game, Crawford has the potential to do more harm than good. Let someone else deal with the headache on draft day.

There will absolutely be stretches where Crawford tears it up but it’s not worth the full-season struggle. If he’s getting hot and on the wire, go for it. Otherwise you’re best served by just walking away.

Luol Deng, Los Angeles Lakers, 31

Deng will be looked at as a veteran leader in LA this season but still stands to be an active contributor for Luke Walton’s bunch.

Watch out for a rapid decrease in minutes towards the end of the year if the Lakers finish where we predict them to. He’ll be subject to sitting in favor of development time for the young guys and might need the occasional rest day anyway. All those minutes in Chicago might finally catch up to him.

He’s certainly in decline but still posted top-100 value last season thanks to some well-rounded production and a stretch of hot 3-point shooting. He’ll struggle to post the same return this year in a sneakily crowded rotation but should be fine to pursue in the late rounds.

Pau Gasol, San Antonio Spurs, 35

If you could dream up a combination of player skillset and team style, Pau and the Spurs would be near the top of the list. His passing acumen, basketball savvy and dizzying array of post moves seems like a match made in heaven for the Spurs machine.

The flip side of that is the impending DNP-OLDs headed his way. You know they’re coming.

It’s going to be very tough for Gasol to match last season’s numbers given that he’s now the third option on offense and will have his minutes massaged all season long. The good thing is that last season was absolutely masterful and produced a top-20 finish.

Don’t go chasing last year’s numbers but count on Gasol to give you a top-50 campaign. For Pau, age is truly but a number.

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs, 38

Manu will be entering his age-38 season and seems to be on the cusp of retirement. Expect Coach Pop to treat him with kid gloves yet again to keep the cagey vet healthy for the stretch run.

That’s really a shame because Ginobili can still turn a profit for fantasy owners. He can churn out decent low level production on a game to game basis but guessing how many games he’ll sit and when those will be is like throwing darts down a gun range.

Ginobili won’t be worth monitoring outside of very deep leagues. Let someone else go for the nostalgia high.

Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors, 32

Iggy was cruising along at a top-75 clip last season before a series of nagging injuries finally caught up to him. You’ll remember the bad back that hampered him in the Finals, too. That’s an inauspicious start.

Consider that the weak link of Golden State’s old starting lineup has been replaced with Kevin Durant and it’s hard to see Iguodala not receivin fewer minutes this campaign. Between the quest to keep him healthy and the Barnes-to-Durant upgrade on the wing and suddenly it looks like he won’t be called upon nearly as often this year, especially as the season wears on. Even on good nights, you’re looking for threes and steals from Iggy and he doesn’t do enough of either to qualify as a specialist.

You’ll have to watch his myriad injuries and will be frustrated more often than not by his output. Deep-leaguers can take a swing at the end of the draft but don’t go chasing Iggy if you’re in a standard format.

Al Jefferson, Indiana Pacers, 31

Big Al signed a 3-year, $30 million deal to join the trendy sleeper Pacers. That paycheck in this offseason tells you what you need to know: Jefferson is strictly a backup.

He’s got all kinds of injury problems that look like they’ll follow him around for the rest of his career. He’ll be playing fewer minutes and should spend more time mentoring Myles Turner on the art of post scoring.

The Professor is past his prime and is no longer a fantasy asset.

Joe Johnson, Utah Jazz, 35

ISO Joe sauntered his way down to South Beach after drawing interest from Cleveland, Toronto and a smattering of other contenders following his buyout from Brooklyn. He looked rejuvenated by meaningful games and finished the season with averages of 13.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.5 triples per night.

Joe will be a nice toy in Quin Snyder’s pocket but shouldn’t pique the interest of any fantasy owner. Utah has a fun young core that’s ready to take the next step and JJ won’t be taking minutes from any of the guys who need them most. Expect him to play a lot less than he did last year on a hollow Nets squad and in a depleted Heat backcourt.

There’s just not much to like about Joe Johnson’s fantasy prospects.

Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks, 35

The Atlanta love fest that took place two years ago is way in the rearview mirror. Alongside it is the goodwill of Korver’s ex-owners, who dealt with a majorly disappointing season in 2015-16.

He was thrown off his game by serious ankle and elbow injuries (those things are super important for shooters, after all) but still managed to suit up for 80 games. The offseason might’ve done him some good and he’ll have more shots to take with Al Horford and Jeff Teague out of the picture. Whether Dennis Schroder tries to make up the difference on his own is a whole separate story, but on paper Korver looks like he’ll be relied on for more scoring this season.

Long story short, you know what Korver can do. Hit triples with good percentages. Don’t expect too much more than his averages in the other categories and you won’t be disappointed. On the plus side, Korver does chip in enough to maintain late round value.

He’ll probably suffer from Danny Green Syndrome and have a good chunk of the fantasy populous refuse to take him again, so he’ll be around pretty late. We won’t blame you for passing on him but if he’s around in the last few rounds, feel free to take a swing if you’d like.

Joakim Noah, New York Knicks, 31

Ah, the superteam Knicks and their new starting center.

This one can really go either way, and he’s either got hazmat tape or an angel’s wings depending on how rosy your disposition is. If he’s healthy and if he can mesh well with Kristaps Porzingis and if he takes to Jeff Hornacek better than he did Fred Hoiberg, we’ve got something here. That’s a lot of ifs, obviously.

Luckily we know that Noah is a terrific passer and rebounder and will be able to ping the ball around to three other starters who have range. When he’s on he can whip the ball around like few other big men and can easily approach triple-double territory on any given night.

Noah could either be a steal or waiver wire fodder this year. It’s best to wait til the final rounds to make your investment but there’s some potential for a nice return to form. As a late round flier you could absolutely do worse.

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks, 38

Dirk is simply a gem. An international treasure and an ageless wonder, he’s slowing down but doesn’t seem ready to stop just yet.

He’ll be the focal point of Dallas’ offense as usual and won’t have the luxury of too many rest days as Dallas is firmly on the bubble of the playoff picture. It almost feels like a cop out, but expect the same as usual from Nowitzki. Minutes in the low 30s, a shade under 20 points per night, five boards, 1.5 triples and great free throw shooting.

Dirk is aging gracefully in part because he’s always been more of a finesse guy than a crasher and banger and there’s no reason to think that kind of smooth, gentle decline won’t carry over into the fantasy realm. Feel free to take Dirk any time after the sixth round.

Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies, 34

Z-Bo looks to be entering decline and that’s not a great phase to be in if you were already a longtime empty calorie contributor. Solid double doubles with no other stats are his specialty but if he’s not logging those anymore he might not be worth your attention.

His scoring and rebounding are both trending downward and he missed 14 games last season, winding up as a top-125 guy.

With Chandler Parsons in town he stands to lose some touches and should see fewer minutes as Memphis tries to keep their old core rested for the playoffs. Couple that with almost zero money stats and Randolph looks like a late round pick if you need some boards.

Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs, 34

Parker saw his minutes dwindle yet again last season but emerged as a helpful piece late in the year. Don’t expect much from the Frenchman this year as his minutes drop even further. The ever-present rest days will be out in full force too, so expectations shouldn’t be too high.

Parker is a surprisingly efficient player and can still dish out some assists but it’s hard to take the incremental help in the percentage categories when he’s going to be taking fewer attempts than he has in the past. He won’t necessarily hurt you but Parker doesn’t demand attention in standard drafts by any stretch of the imagination.

He’ll nestle in comfortably on the outskirts of the top 150 so if that tickles your fancy he’s a sound, if nondescript play.

Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls, 34

Father Prime is headed back to his hometown of Chicago after shockingly spurning the Heat in free agency. Sick of taking pay cuts to help Miami out, Wade is slotted as the starting shooting guard for the Bulls.

Expect a sizable value drop for Wade this year. He’ll have to share the court with Jimmy Butler and Rajon ’17 seconds of dribbling’ Rondo and is in line for fewer shots. With Rondo’s stat-chasing ways dominating the ball, owners should be wary of Wade slowly morphing into a catch-and-shoot option rather than an ISO scorer. That’s a scary prospect for him despite the fact that Wade showed how much is left in the tank during the postseason.

Don’t forget, Miami tried their best to limit Wade’s minutes but were forced to lean on him when Chris Bosh went down. The Bulls are trying to win but have enough depth to give Wade the rest his body needs.

Spacing will also be an issue and his prospects might be improved depending on how the rotation shakes out, but for now we’ll call him a late middle-round or early late-round value.

Deron Williams, Dallas Mavericks, 32

Williams steadily chugged his way to the top-100 last season (though he was 128th in 9-cat formats) and looks to be good for similar production this season.

There will be turn-back-the-clock nights and games where you kick yourself for drafting him but Williams is a decent complementary guard to have on your roster. It’s unlikely that he’ll improve going forward but there’s always a shot at a slight uptick in efficiency.

Improvement or not, Williams will hang around the top 125. There’s some injury risk for sure but D-Will has settled in as a consistent fantasy asset.

David West, Golden State Warriors, 35

The new old guy at the end of Steve Kerr’s bench, West will be looking at a low minute role akin to the one he played in San Antonio last year.

That’s hardly exciting news but it should be noted that West finished inside the top-150 when the dust settled. He should be in for a slight improvement with Golden State as defenders sprint past him to cover the best shooters on the planet. On a team without a true post presence, West might be thrust into that role and could find himself with a swath of cheapies from the mid-range.

It might sound crazy, but West has our full support for late rounds in deep leagues. There’s low upside but a solid floor if you have the patience to ride the wave all year long.

*Originally published September 5, 2016