2017 Draft Guide: Percentage Pariahs

Very few fantasy players are the total package. In fact, you could probably count those guys on one hand and still have some fingers left over.
Nearly every player has a fantasy blemish, but percentages stand out as the categories where players can be actively harmful. A player might record zero rebounds, but it’s not like he’s producing negative output. The same can’t be said for the players below, who can undo the good work done by the rest of your roster with their woeful shooting.
We’ve taken a look at some of the most harmful shooters in the game, as well as some names you might not have expected to ding you and guys who could do some damage if their volume increases. Pretty much everyone here has another area they excel at, but whether the juice is worth the squeeze is going to be up to you and your roster build.
Free Throw Killers
DeAndre Jordan
2016-17: .482 on 5.2 FTA
Unsurprisingly, DeAndre Jordan will lead this off. His 48.2 percent from the “charity” stripe was easily the lowest amongst players who attempted over five per game, and the hack-a-Jordan strategy will surely be back this year. To be fair, last year’s mark was the second highest of Jordan’s career. Take that as you will, but he’s seen a three year improvement of .397 to .430 to .482. He’s also had two separate drops of about five percent or more including an ugly plummet from .525 in 2011-12 to .386 in 2012-13.
He’s always been a strong punt play thanks to his elite output in blocks, rebounds and field goal percentage but Jordan seems like a reach at the early-mid or middle-round point that players have grown accustomed to, especially as his blocks decline. Life without Chris Paul could be very difficult for a guy with such limited offensive skills, and his heightened importance may force the Clippers to keep him on the floor, leading to more free throws. Not that you had a chance at that category, anyway.
Andre Drummond
2016-17: .386 on 4.4 FTA
While Jordan topped the ugly list of players who shot five or more freebies per game, Drummond led the charge when shooting four or more with a grotesque 38.6 percent. It actually represented an improvement on a .355 mark on 7.2 attempts from a year prior, but it’s unavoidably bad for non-punters.
If there’s some solace to take, it’s that Drummond has seen his free throw rate decline on top of losing playing time. That will hurt him in the pursuit of rebounds, steals and blocks, but he’ll still be among the league’s elite on the glass and it could keep him off the line a little bit. Unfortunately, he’ll still represent an impossible hurdle for anyone who isn’t punting, and a decrease in free throw attempts won’t make much difference unless he gets down into the 2.0 or fewer range.
Hassan Whiteside
2016-17: .628 on 4.6 FTA
Whiteside presents a more interesting case than most poor-free throw centers, as he’s exhibited a weird quirk of improving his freebies in the second half for two straight years. This season, by month, he shot .524, .560, .526, .613, .696, .800 and .667, though that last month included just six games. In 2015-16, the story was the same. He led off at .750 over two games before going .530, .532, .556, .727, .758 and .731, so there might be something to this.
Of course, two years is still a small sample in the grand scheme of things. There’s some reassurance in the fact that Whiteside’s 4.6 attempts per game were only 39th in the NBA, and he provides enough in other categories to warrant early-round consideration. And who knows – Whiteside talks a big game and clearly has the chops to hit his free throws at an average clip for more than a few games at a time. Maybe there’s substantial improvement on the horizon.
Rudy Gobert
2016-17: .653 on 5.9 FTA
Somewhat shockingly, Gobert ranked 20th in the NBA with 5.9 free throw attempts per game. You wouldn’t think of the Stifle Tower leading this group in that category as he’s not someone that opponents have taken to hacking just yet.
While that number might increase as Utah needs to redistribute its touches in search of a new primary scorer, Gobert simply brings too many other stats to the table to warrant falling out of the early rounds. His 65.3 percent also represented a career high on his most volume ever, so there’s still some hope for improvement, too. Like Whiteside, he doesn’t have the ghastliest of the ghastly numbers that force you to punt, but that’s the general direction you’re heading with him on your roster, especially at this volume.
Dwight Howard
2016-17: .533 on 5.7 FTA
The curious case of Dwight Howard. He can still be an effective player when he’s on the court, but the game is moving further and further away from his bread and butter. Things get even messier this year as he joins a Charlotte squad with a capable traditional big in Cody Zeller and a burgeoning stretch five in Frank Kaminsky. It means the Hornets shouldn’t hesitate to yank Dwight when things aren’t going well or if the intentional foul game picks up.
Unfortunately, even as his minutes and free throw attempts are cut, he might still be poor enough from the line to derail even the best laid plans. Howard hasn’t topped .600 from the stripe since his rookie season and hasn’t surpassed .547 since 2010-11. He’s still worth grabbing if you feel compelled to punt (or if the early round action necessitates the strategy), but standard league owners should tread extremely carefully outside the late rounds.
The Unusual Suspects
LeBron James
2016-17: .674 on 7.2 FTA
Among the top-20 free throw takers in the league (in terms of attempts per game), LeBron was only able to outdo Rudy Gobert in terms of efficiency. The King is still The King, of course, but if we’re looking for any potential weakness in his game this might be it.
On the other hand, there’s a good chance that this will serve as LeBron’s career low in the category. His previous worst was .698 that came all the way back in 2006-07, and since then he’s been between 71 and 78 percent. He should be able to get back into the lower .700s, where he’s been for two years, and at that level it’s not enough to totally sink you even on big volume. He’s still an early-round option, not that you needed to hear that.
Nikola Vucevic
2016-17: .669 on 2.1 FTA
Vucevic is another player who saw a big drop out of nowhere, as his .669 followed up three seasons of .766, .752 and .753 from the charity stripe. This was also his lowest volume season of those four, so it’s not like a truer talent level was exposed through extra shots.
Vuc is a very strong bounceback candidate in the free throw department, and even though he doesn’t take a lot of freebies it should be good enough to give him a slight bump in the ranks. Nothing crazy, of course, but he’s looking like a set-and-forget top-50 guy.
Cody Zeller
2016-17: .679 on 3.2 FTA
In keeping with the theme, Zeller’s 2016-17 was easily the worst of his four-year career. This came out of nowhere after the big man delivered years of .730, .774 and .754 to begin his career. Again, the volume isn’t killer but any improvement can help you out, especially when you’re landing in the later rounds where the value bands narrow.
While Zeller is almost surely going to rebound, the question he faces this year is whether or not he’ll get enough minutes to make a legitimate fantasy impact. He’s doing battle with Dwight Howard and should probably win from a fit perspective, but a timeshare seems the most likely outcome. We still like Zeller as a low-end big man and you shouldn’t be spooked off by his ugly free throw numbers from last season.
Dion Waiters
2016-17: .646 on 2.8 FTA
While Waiters’ incredible scoring nights and clutch buckets were the talk of the town, it worked to paper over some of the big blemishes on what was an admittedly great performance. While you don’t typically think of shooting guards as players who will drag down your free throw numbers, that’s what we have here.
Consider this: Waiters has failed to top .685 from the line in three of his five career seasons. He posted the highest free throw rate of his career in Miami last season besides the years where he logged big minutes for bad Cavs teams. A fully healthy Heat squad should help keep that in check, but Waiters is the type of guy who can hurt an average free throw squad just enough to matter in fantasy.
Volume Watch
Elfrid Payton
2016-17: .692 on 2.6 FTA
Payton was one of the league’s hottest players in the second half of last season and is looking to carry over that momentum as the Magic rejigger the roster yet again. He saw big jumps from both the field and the line, and his free throw improvement from .589 to .692 is a result of his changing shot profile. A post-deadline Magic team had enough driving lanes for Payton to attack the rim and stop settling for jumpers, and it was huge for his fantasy value.
While most of the jump was carried by his unlikely-to-repeat .743 mark after the All-Star break, he was shooting a career-best .664 before Orlando made its big changes. The worry here is twofold – that the new-look Magic enable Payton to build on his career-high second-half free throw rate and that regression proves particularly unkind. Be careful here, as a dip back into the high .500s on similar or increased volume could be perilous.
Jusuf Nurkic
2016-17: .571 on 3.2 FTA
Nurkic’s season was a tale of two halves. Namely the first “does it look like I’m trying” half in Denver and the part of the year spent in Portland where Nurk Alerts were a surplus commodity. The .571 mark was easily a career worst but was definitely dragged down by an ugly .496 through 45 lackadaisical games with the Nuggets.
He improved to .660 upon joining the Blazers and it happened to come on 4.9 attempts per night, easily the highest that Nurk had ever delivered. It’s only the second highest per-minute mark of his career, however, as Nurkic saw more attempts per minute in his abbreviated sophomore campaign when he shot .616 from the stripe. Climbing back above 60 percent is a fairly attainable goal, but 4.9 free throws per game would’ve put him just outside the league’s top 30 in that regard. Over a full season that’ll steer you away from contending in the category, so keep that in mind with the popular mid-round play.
Clint Capela
2016-17: .531 on 2.7 FTA
There’s plenty of fantasy hype around Capela this season, and with good reason. He’s going to be a huge boost for your shooting percentage as the receiver for countless pretty lobs. Rumors of him pushing 30 minutes per game only make the rebounding and blocks potential all the more tantalizing. It does have the drawback of leading to more free throws, and that’s something that owners will need to weigh carefully.
Despite a three-year improvement from .174 to .379 to .531, it’s still going to hurt no matter how many Capela takes. He might be able to avoid the hacks, mercifully, as getting into the penalty against Houston’s occasionally floppy roster seems deadly. His free throw attempts are certainly going up, so you’re going to be hoping for marginal increases and continued improvement to help keep the damage in check.
Andre Roberson
2016-17: .423 on 1.4 FTA
Roberson is a decent low-end player thanks to his ability to rack up defensive numbers. Unfortunately his free throws provide some extra drag in the deep leagues where he’s most often rostered, as owners need to make some sacrifices to fill out rosters in an expanded player pool. It might not feel like a lot of free throws but they compound quickly when the rest of the roster features less-than-perfect shooters.
The Rockets took to hacking him in the postseason, and that could be another tactic that teams turn to when they get sick and tired of Russell Westbrook ripping through defenses at lightning speed. It also has the added benefit of forcing OKC to remove their best perimeter defender from the game. The steals and blocks probably outdo the harm of the free throws but any increase in quantity could be incredibly damaging.
Also Poor
Tristan Thompson
2016-17: .498 on 2.7 FTA
Thompson’s 2016-17 was a career low in terms of both free throw rate and efficiency, but the drop was stark. A .552 showing as a rookie was poor, but TT had done well to improve and had never fallen below 60 percent since, nearly touching 70 percent one year. To say this was a shock is a bit of an understatement.
Simply put, it’s hard to trust a drop like this (.616 to .498) to carry over for multiple years. Thompson should be in line for some bounceback here but his new bench role will ding his already limited appeal. It might keep him off the line but will also damage his ability to rack up plodding double-doubles.
Steven Adams
2016-17: .611 on 3.2 FTA
Adams decided to put some work into his free throw stroke last offseason and it’s hard to say he didn’t deliver, though the improvement wasn’t earth-shaking by any means. He did start hot and then faded big time as the season wore on, so that could be a pattern worth watching.
There’s enough in Adams’ toolbox to keep him near the middle-round conversation even with the substandard free throws, but just know that 3.2 free throws per game is actually closer to the top of the leaderboards than you might think.
Mason Plumlee
2016-17: .580 on 3.7 FTA
Plumlee keeps getting back-of-draft consideration in standard leagues coming off a strong season that flashed his playmaking abilities. Unfortunately, that’s a very tough bargain to uphold now that he’s a strict bench big behind two stars in Denver.
The deep league appeal that still remains, however, will be boosted by the fact that he’s going to take fewer free throws. His 3.7 attempts last year tied him with C.J. McCollum, Nic Batum and Myles Turner, so it’s not like this is a nothing change. He averaged only 2.8 after getting to Denver and could see a slight dip from that this year, so plan accordingly if you’ve got space on your bench.
Bismack Biyombo
2016-17: .534 on 2.9 FTA
Biyombo entered the season with a fat contract and the expectations that come with it, only to decline in just about every statistical category. Owners who picked him in deep leagues hoping for a cheap blocks and boards guy had to be dismayed by the minimal increase in playing time and ugly decline in his free throw percentage.
Of course, Biyombo’s .628 in his breakout year with the Raptors looks like a career outlier, so perhaps this was to be expected. He’s still only a .553 career shooter and we wouldn’t feel confident about another jump into the .600s anytime soon.
Field Goal Killers
Russell Westbrook
2016-17: .425 on 24.0 FGA
Yes, Westbrook was a deserving MVP after a historic season. Yes, his other numbers were outrageous enough to forgive the shooting. And yes, that shooting was poor enough to require forgiveness. There are plenty of players in the league who will shoot at this level or worse, but nobody even touched Westbrook’s gaudy 24 shots per game.
You obviously deal with that, and there could be some slight improvements this year. Westbrook has never been an asset in the efficiency department but does shoot better when he’s got an elite guy alongside him, as you might expect. The percentage should rise and the volume should drop even if The Brodie still puts you behind the 8-ball.
Devin Booker
2016-17: .423 on 18.3 FGA
Booker was forecast for a true breakout season last year but was held back by his lackluster shooting. He’s shot .423 in each of his first two seasons, so hopefully there’s improvement coming. There’s not a lot to suggest that he’ll lose shots this year as he remains a focal point of the Suns rebuild, so better marksmanship is your best hope.
Curiously, Booker actually improved from beyond the arc but suffered on his twos. He’s still got plenty of room to grow and a year of facing the league’s stoppers should do him some good. Book won’t go from this tier to the outright positives, but we’re expecting a step forward.
Wesley Matthews
2016-17: .393 on 11.6 FGA
Matthews simply hasn’t been the same since he suffered a brutal Achilles injury with the Blazers back in 2014-15, plummeting to .388 and .393 shooting marks in Dallas after shooting .443 in his first six NBA seasons. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like that will change any time soon.
His 2016-17 was a roller coaster with only one up and several downs, as he peaked by shooting 44 percent from the floor in February but never topped 42 percent in any other month. There were three full months (and three games in October, but we’ll be kind) where he was under 39 percent, including a brutal March where he shot .330 from the field. Matthews should lose some shots this season but his efficiency pushes a mid-round stat set into late round territory.
Eric Gordon
2016-17: .406 on 13.5 FGA
Like Matthews, Gordon lost a lot of his shooting touch after some serious injuries. He was a mid-forties fixture early in his career but hasn’t topped .418 since 2012-13, aside from one .436 season that’s looking like a serious outlier.
There’s not a lot of hope for improvement beyond dumb luck either, as Gordon’s role on the 3-point happy Rockets is to rise and fire as long as his feet are behind the arc. He’s become a pretty strong deep shooter later in his career, but the sheer volume of long distance shots he takes will prevent him from climbing too far over 40 percent.
Robert Covington
2016-17: .399 on 10.9 FGA
You’re under no illusions that Covington will shoot well when you draft him. You’re in it for the cash counters and your efficiency is just collateral damage. Still, his elite combo of steals and threes makes him worth nabbing in the middle rounds and you can make for his deficiencies without too much trouble if you grab some quality bigs.
It should be interesting to track his shot share this year as the Sixers integrate so many high-priority players in their first full seasons, but RoCo shouldn’t have too much deviation as a locked-in small forward.
Kevin Love
2016-17: .427 on 14.5 FGA
Love is the latest big name to land on this list, and like the rest you’re happy to put up with the weak shooting for the rest of the package. He can be a more efficient player, sure, but he’s unsurprisingly suffered with the shift in his shot profile after joining Cleveland.
How that changes now that Love is lining up at center remains unclear, but the point of the configuration is likely to give LeBron James four shooters (well, three and Derrick Rose in the interim) to whom he can ping passes. While Love can be an excellent down-low scorer, condensing his workspace chips away the tactical and spatial advantages he provides. There might be a small percentage boost as he spends more time near the cup but it shouldn’t be anything crazy.
Reggie Jackson
2016-17: .419 on 13.0 FGA
Jackson is coming off a nightmare season in Detroit where he battled injury and then disrupted the team’s offensive rhythm upon returning. The Pistons had a team meeting where several players mentioned that they liked the consistent touches that came with Ish Smith running the show, and Jackson is still on the hot seat after Detroit faded quickly.
We’ll see what this year holds, and though Jackson has never been a strong shooter he should be able to get closer to his career .431 mark if he’s at or near full health. Now that Smith is being pushed for time by a viable alternative, he might also rein things in order to stay on the court. We’re expecting some marginal improvement here, though not enough to move Jackson past late-round consideration.
The Unusual Suspects
Josh Richardson
2016-17: .397 on 9.4 FGA
Richardson is another player who battled through injury, though his outstanding rookie campaign makes this one a much tougher forecast than Jackson’s. J-Rich wasn’t thought of as a knock-down shooter in college but proceeded to hit 45.2 percent of his looks as a rookie, including an incredible 46.1 percent of his threes.
Injury and simple regression probably contributed to him slipping so far, though he was nearly identical on his twos – it was a drop from .461 to .330 on his 3-pointers that drove the dive. Richardson should be better than this, even if his first year was on the high end.
Nicolas Batum
2016-17: .403 on 12.7 FGA
Among players who took 12 or more shots per game over the full season, none shot at a lower percentage than Batum. Even if we include the partial seasons only Justise Winslow performed worse. It’s a far cry from Batum’s early career, and he’s now been at .400 in two of the last three campaigns.
He’s still an excellent all-around producer and is a top-50 play, and another scoring increase would ease the burden of some poor shooting, but Batum probably won’t be returning to his .450 days going forward. The new normal isn’t great here.
Dario Saric
2016-17: .411 on 11.4 FGA
Saric was a game-changer in the second half last season thanks to his own tremendous skills and some unbelievable opportunity. On the full season he shot .469 from two-point range, so most of the damages here were driven by Saric’s .311 mark from deep. That’s hardly inconsequential on 4.2 threes per night.
Unsurprisingly, he got a ton of volume in February, March and April, including a lot of threes. While he was actually at his strongest overall field goal percentage in those months, he wasn’t good enough to be an asset for fantasy players. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares this season, as he looked to struggle when given inconsistent playing time and is now occupying a new bench role.
Frank Kaminsky
2016-17: .399 on 10.7 FGA
Frank the Tank made some nice strides in his sophomore year and took on a much larger role on offense. He added just five minutes to his playing time but saw over four more shots per game and looks to be a valuable part of Charlotte’s most spaced out lineups.
While Kaminsky did disappoint by shooting .399, he was only .410 as a rookie and doesn’t seem likely to climb too high until he starts operating closer to the bucket. Considering the Hornets’ frontcourt personnel, we’re not counting on that happening this year.
Volume Watch
D’Angelo Russell
2016-17: .405 on 13.8 FGA
Russell will probably always drag your field goal percentage down, but there’s some question as to how much damage he can really do entering an unchecked year in Brooklyn. Though he absolutely deserves to run the show, we could see him tack on four or five shots a night. Considering the Nets’ propensity for threes, it could be a category killer for owners.
Though .351 from 3-point range isn’t unworkable, any sizable increase would undoubtedly have an adverse effect on D’Lo’s overall number. Russell’s upside is undeniable and he simply has to come off the boards in the middle rounds. That being said, you’d better hope to have some strong anchors in the field goal percentage department or you can probably forget about contending there.
Marcus Smart
2016-17: .359 on 9.5 FGA
Smart checks off a ton of boxes for the Celtics even if he’s yet to really improve his shooting. He’ll play a lot with Avery Bradley gone, even if he comes off the bench for a still-stacked group. We’ll see how much more of the offensive pie he gets, but we’re hard pressed to believe in substantial gains here.
He’s one of the worst 3-point shooters in the league among those who are actually permitted to rise and fire, and that’s probably not going to change. The Celtics’ overall offseason probably prevents him from taking more shots this season, but it’s something to tuck away just in case he finds more shots headed his way.
Rodney Hood
2016-17: .408 on 11.3 FGA
Hood was expected to take off last season after a great sophomore campaign but wound up with his worst shooting season yet despite his best marks from 3-point range. The fact that all of his regression came on twos offers some signs of hope going forward, as does his new place in the pecking order and an offseason that was hopefully used to get healthy.
Hood should be able to get over 42 percent for the first time in his career and we’re banking on injuries doing most of the damage last season. The Jazz will really need to grind out buckets this season but the addition of Ricky Rubio might help Hood get some easier looks. He’ll be better than this, for sure.
Dion Waiters
2016-17: .424 on 14.4 FGA
The only player to appear on both lists, Waiters checks in again as a potential hazard to your percentages. Last season’s 42.4 percent was the second highest of his career and also came on the most attempts per game. Because this is Dion Waiters, you should already know that his career-high came on his second-highest volume, because of course it did. That’s not the type of thing you should bet on, to be clear.
From an overall fantasy perspective, you’re looking for a lot of threes and points for Waiters to return value, and he needs a lot of shots to do that. He’s looking like the starting two guard but finds himself among several talented peers who offer more dimensions to the Heat. Waiters is coming in to shoot, and he’s going to take your field goal percentage down in the process.
Tyler Ulis
2016-17: .421 on 7.2 FGA
Ulis burst onto the scene last season when the Suns shut down their veterans to let the young guns play. He had some memorable moments but fantasy players more than likely missed his best games and were stuck with the poor-shooting version of Ulis rather than the highlight reel. That’s what happens when you’re not proactive.
As you’d expect, he wasn’t more than a blip on the radar until March, when he posted a .408 shooting percentage on 12.6 shots per game. He rebounded some in April, but clearly it wasn’t a big boost. Ulis is a helpful guy to have around for steals and dimes but watch out if (or when) he gets the starting job.
Also Poor
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
2016-17: .399 on 12.2 FGA
Caldwell-Pope will be looking to cash in on a one-year deal that makes plenty of sense for all parties involved, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can become a more efficient player for a year out in L.A. KCP’s best fantasy year unsurprisingly came when he shot .420, and the fact that he’s still a career .405 shooter tells you most of what you need to know.
The Detroit offense didn’t do any favors for anyone, and the Lakers bring far more spacing to the table than the Pistons could. Perhaps the dynamic alternatives and superior passers open up some more looks for Caldwell-Pope, and a marginal improvement could be on the horizon. He’s a fine guy to grab in the late rounds.
Justise Winslow
2016-17: .356 on 12.5 FGA
Winslow really struggled with an expanded role in his abbreviated season. He shot .422 as a rookie, but that didn’t do too much damage on just 5.9 shots per game. Last season he ballooned to 12.5 a night and watched his shooting percentage go right in the tank.
Like everyone else, Winslow said he spent the offseason working on his shot. We’re willing to take him a little more seriously as it’s the only major blemish for him and a workable perimeter shot would really be his ticket to more minutes. He won’t be .356-bad again, and he might see fewer shots too. This will probably go down as his career low point. We hope.
Ryan Anderson
2016-17: .418 on 10.7 FGA
Anderson had plenty of hype, but the siren song of out-of-position threes couldn’t possibly compensate for the rest of his underwhelming stat set. There was just never that much substance to Anderson’s game, especially if he’d be roaming around the perimeter full-time.
With that first mediocre year out of the way, he seems to have faded from the fantasy community’s consciousness for now. He can still be helpful in deep leagues but he’s not going to help your efficiency. He is what he is.
Rajon Rondo
2016-17: .408 on 8.1 FGA
We’d be remiss to write this column without at least mentioning Rajon Rondo, who has taken his talents to New Orleans. It’s going to be an absolutely fascinating season to watch for the Pellies, and the Rondo signing presents a ton of curious fits all over the floor.
Theoretically, the Pelicans’ spacing will present a bunch of problems when it comes to scoring outside of the post and there should be some cramped driving lanes in even the best of times. No matter how this season plays out, expect Rondo to deliver the same poor shooting he always has. At least you know the deal when you draft him.
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