2018 Draft Guide: Busts
“Bust” can be a funny word, and before we jump into it we should really set the goalposts for what constitutes a bust here.
Last season there was no bigger bust than Kawhi Leonard, but who could’ve predicted just nine games and a ton of off-court drama? We’re not trying to pay nostradamus and pick out the guys who’ll get hurt and leave owners in the lurch, but rather the players who are looking likely to disappoint their owners given expectations and draft position. Some of the busts here can still be effective fantasy contributors, but you’ll need to re-evaluate the risk/reward equation rather than jump in blindly.
Lonzo Ball
Ball is getting the squeeze this offseason with the arrivals of LeBron James and Rajon Rondo. Bron is obviously going to command a huge share of touches, and you have to wonder how duplicative Ball’s skillset is with James totally capable of doing the same things at a higher level. Obviously the Lakers still believe in Lonzo and he’s likely to start once he gets to 100 percent, but the team’s timeline just got moved up in a flash and they can’t really shy away from using Rajon Rondo more if it means better results. The Lakers are a win-now team with a rebuild foundation, which could make for an interesting dynamic if anyone struggles.
Ball absolutely needs to be drafted in all leagues, but he’s more of a top-100 guy than the middle-round option that he seems to be valued as. Perhaps Ball opens the year fully healthy, the Rondo concerns end up being overblown and all the kids step up together to form a serious supporting cast for LeBron. All of that is entirely possible, but you shouldn’t be paying a premium price to find out.
Jaylen Brown
Brown was able to take some nice steps forward in his sophomore season, and his 1.7 3-pointers, 1.0 steals and 0.4 blocks per game were nice raw numbers for owners. This year he’ll need to make another leap to overcome his poor free throw shooting, and Boston’s depth makes that a tough sell. Last year he was just a top-150 option and the deck is stacked against him. You can bank on Brown continuing to grow as a player, but he’s a vastly superior real-life player than he is a fantasy prospect.
Julius Randle
First thing’s first - Randle makes a lot more sense in 8-cat leagues. If that’s your neighborhood, he’s probably not even fit to qualify for this article. For the 9-cat players out there, watch out. In general, Randle will have a hard time returning value given his AD. He’s a nice fit for New Orleans as a complementary big man who can handle his share of playmaking duties, but he’s being drafted (rounds five through seven) like the surefire starter at power forward. That’s all well and good but Nikola Mirotic is also fighting for that spot, and his shooting, plus his ability to play without the ball, is just a better fit with Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday.
There’s a wide range of outcomes with Randle but at the moment the market seems to be paying for him at his peak. It’d be a safer bet if Randle could include more steals, blocks or threes (and if his shooting wasn’t screaming for regression) but as a touch-needy player with a popcorn stat set, his price right now is bound to leave owners hurting.
Brandon Ingram
Ingram continued to tease last season, ultimately finishing outside the top-180 (that’s per-game value, to be clear) while mixing in stretches of top-100 play. Between his health issues and woeful free throw shooting, there are a lot of questions about Ingram even before we talk about the potential changes he’ll need to work through with LeBron in town.
Yes, last season’s numbers of 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.7 threes were good. There’s just not enough going his way to warrant a top-100 selection in fantasy drafts. We’re not sure where Ingram’s “true” shooting percentage lies since he was .402 as a rookie and .470 last season. His free throws are improving but still bad. The Lakers continue to treat him as a franchise pillar but there’s no guarantees that he’s funneled the same amount of touches. There are just too many question marks and one fatal flaw that are setting Ingram up for failure on the fantasy marketplace.
Terry Rozier
Just because Scary Terry is one of the premier handcuff options available doesn’t mean he should be coming off draft boards in the 10th or 11th round. The Celtics have extra wing depth that will push into the backcourt minutes, and you can’t count on Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart missing games simultaneously again. Brad Stevens might want to get Rozier as many minutes as possible but there almost has to be a trade for him to find standard league value.
Josh Jackson
The Suns would be wise to let Jackson run wild and soak up as many developmental minutes as possible, and there’s two ways that fantasy owners can take that. Either they agree and will find that the Suns have overcrowded the wings, or they’ll hope for restraint and find that Jackson’s percentages are going to be odious regardless of how much volume he gets.
The talent is obvious and the appeal is understandable, and Jackson can make a ton of sense in the right builds - and especially in points formats. The percentages are just going to be far too much to handle. Jackson was able to post averages of 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks and 0.9 threes per game in 29.5 mpg over his final 36 contests. That looks appetizing but the fact that he shot .437 on 15.5 attempts per game and .692 from the free throw line left him outside the top-175. And that’s with huge volume as a go-to option. Jackson is a build-dependent player but isn’t being drafted like one.
Carmelo Anthony
The Rockets can make magic with just about anyone, but Melo is a different beast. He seems to have accepted a bench role, which is step one. If he lets the coaches put him in good spots to succeed and stays in his lane, he’ll be a decent offensive contributor. Unfortunately, the bench job doesn’t bode well for his workload. The only thing that can save Melo there is if he commits himself to defending. Skepticism is warranted.
There’s no doubt that playing in Houston will give Anthony good shots. He’ll be put in the right spots and has teammates who are both smart enough and unselfish enough to give him the ball at the right time. The issue is that Melo is a volume-dependent guy who might have a tough time getting the adequate minutes, even if he is effective when he’s out there. There’s more upside and less downside available at his current ADP.
Trey Burke
The allure of Burke is twofold: he’s likely going to be the starting point guard, and he was a beast to close last season. The problems with Burke are that he’s probably not going to last the year as the starter, and that last year’s hot streak was carried by an insanely unsustainable shooting run.
Last season he shot .503 on 10.7 attempts a night. Even with those excellent numbers mixed in, Burke is just a career .404 shooter. He’s going to be a lot closer to 40 percent than 50, and he’s not shy about shooting even when he’s tossing bricks. The Knicks also have a new coach, and David Fizdale doesn’t seem like the type to stick with a floundering point guard. Frank Ntilikina is waiting in the wings and Emmanuel Mudiay is still getting chances, so the safety net just isn’t there for a guy who’s a lock to fall. There’s short-term appeal and he’ll have some random scoring explosions, but Burke has the potential to do a lot more harm than good even at his ADP.
Greg Monroe
I get it. Monroe was trapped in awful situations last year and he’s technically the backup center in Toronto. He was a borderline top-100 guy coming off the bench in Milwaukee, so what’s the harm as a flier? Simply put, the guy isn’t gonna play. Throughout the preseason Moose hasn’t left the bench until the second half, and mostly he’s been kept on ice until the fourth quarter. The Raptors have Jonas Valanciunas as their true center with Serge Ibaka primed to get everything that’s left over. Ask Bebe (RIP) how much playing time the Raptors give their third center.
Can a last-round pick really be a bust? Yes, in the sense that there are both higher-floor and higher-upside options available. That goes double to those of you in leagues with transaction limits. Save yourself the drop.
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