2019 Draft Guide: Schedule Analysis

The NBA schedule has always provided the most dedicated fantasy owners a sneaky way to squeeze every last bit out of each roster spot, and that will continue even as the league continues to ease the schedule’s burden on its players.
Over the last few seasons we’ve seen a major cutdown on many of the schedule elements that fantasy owners target (back-to-backs, five-game weeks, etc.). Back-to-backs are down and four-in-fives are just about extinct at this point. While the extra onus on putting out the best possible product has cut down on some opportunity, fantasy owners still have some schedule wrinkles to exploit this year.
There’s still a lot of time to plan before the Pelicans, Raptors, Lakers and Clippers kick us off on October 22, so let’s get to it.
Five-Game Weeks
The NBA was back to its old tricks. In the first year that the league emphasized spacing out the schedule, the Kings received the only five-game week on the calendar. Last year the league managed to cut down on five-games-in-seven-nights stretches again but actually increased the number of five-game fantasy weeks to eight.
This year that number is back down to one, and it’s happening early. The Phoenix Suns get this season’s only five-game week in Week 5. Perhaps it makes up for the Suns going 3-3-3-2 in their first four weeks.
Four-Game Weeks
The trade-off there is that the amount of four-game weeks has increased from 270 to 281. That means there are fewer three- and two-game weeks, and fantasy managers should be fine with that balanced schedule.
This year the Grizzlies lead the way with 12 four-game weeks, with the Rockets, Pacers, Clippers, Bucks, Magic, Sixers and Spurs checking in at 11. The Hornets, Bulls and Wizards have 10.
On the other side of the coin, the Heat and Lakers are tied for the fewest four-game weeks with seven apiece. That does mean that they have limited three-game weeks, at least.
The Hornets have the longest run of four-game weeks in the league this year, getting five straight from Weeks 5 through 9. It’s a stretch of six four-game weeks in seven starting in Week 3.
The Sixers (Weeks 3 through 8) and the Clippers (Weeks 4 through 9) have runs of five four-game weeks in a six-week stretch, with their extra week having three games.
The Nets have a five-in-six stretch as well, though their extra week is a two-gamer. That said, theirs does come in the second half of the season and stretch into the playoffs -- Weeks 19 through 24.
As for the stretch run, the Wizards and Jazz both have runs of four four-gamers in a five-week span: Washington from Weeks 19 through 23 and Utah from Weeks 20 through 24.
Big Threes
As you might’ve guessed, three-game weeks are the most common this season. They’re not great for fantasy purposes, but they aren’t the worst things in the world. Where fantasy players can get a leg up is in the fact that there’s a massive spread of three-game weeks this year.
The Grizzlies only have seven three-game weeks, while the Pacers and Spurs have eight apiece. The Lakers and Heat both have a whopping 16 three-game weeks; nobody else has more than 14 (Raptors, Knicks, Thunder, Pelicans, Pistons).
Two Or Fewer
This is where things pivot for the Grizzlies, as all of those missing three-game weeks have to get made up somewhere -- in the dreaded one-or-two-game week.
Memphis has seven weeks with fewer than three games, tied with Indiana for the league-high.
The Hornets, Rockets, Clippers, Bucks, Magic, Sixers, Suns and Wizards have six while the Nets, Celtics, Bulls, Mavs, Nuggets, Warriors, Wolves, Blazers, Kings and Jazz have five. The Hawks, Cavs, Pistons, Pelicans, Thunder and Raptors have four.
That means that the Knicks, Heat and Lakers are the lucky few with only three games of three games or fewer.
As usual, most of these two-or-fewer weeks occur in the season’s first and last weeks and the two that surround the All-Star break. We’ll get to those ASB slates in a second.
As for the first week of the season, the Hawks, Cavs, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Magic, Sixers and Spurs all play twice with every other team getting three games.
The second week of the season also features a few two-game slates with the Wizards, Wolves, Grizzlies and Celtics getting just a pair of games.
In Week 26, the final one of the year, just about everyone plays two games -- only the Hawks and Bucks play once.
As for the rare, non-ASB or finale one-game weeks, they’re gone. Fantasy managers won’t have any decisions to make about the London game, which will be nice.
In terms of head-to-head playoff season, which we’ll consider as Week 23 and beyond, only the Mavs, Grizzlies, Blazers and Jazz have two-game weeks outside of the final week of the year -- all in Week 25. If you’d like to extend that into Week 21, the Pistons (21), Nets (22 -- though we mentioned their good schedule otherwise), Pacers (21) Sixers (21), Suns (21), Kings (21) and Raptors (21) are the only additions.
Around the Break
In Week 17, the one leading into the All-Star break, the Bulls, Cavs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Knicks and Sixers all play just one game while every other team plays two.
In Week 18, the one coming out of the break, all teams play twice except for the Clippers, Knicks, Magic and Bulls -- though Chicago is the lucky group that gets three games.
Nobody plays more than four games across those two abbreviated weeks but if your league locks for Weeks 17 & 18 at once, we’d probably avoid the two-game Knicks.
Early Birds
For the second straight season, there are no teams that play a majority of their games in the second half (13 weeks) of the season. The Nets, Celtics, Rockets, Spurs and Wizards all have an even 41-41 split.
The most that any team plays in the first half is 44 games. The Hornets, Bulls, Warriors, Bucks, Sixers and Blazers accomplish the feat, which means that a well-timed trade could net you a handful of extra games over the season’s second half if you were to trade a Warrior for a Spur, for example.
Down the Stretch
This year’s schedule features no backloaded teams, so there won’t be any easy targets to try and poach in the second half. If we’re looking at the final five weeks of the year (Week 22 onward), then the Spurs and Raptors lead the way with 17 games apiece. Toronto wraps up with a 4-3-4-4-2 stretch while San Antonio ends 4-4-3-4-2.
Over that same stretch the Hawks, Bulls, Mavs and Blazers are teams you’ll want to shy away from as they get just 14 games. Given the number of leagues that don’t use Week 26, the Hawks may not be as bad of a choice since they go 4-3-3-3-1. Chicago goes 3-3-3-3-2, Dallas finishes 4-3-3-2-2 and Portland closes 3-4-3-2-2.
If we shorten things to look at the final four weeks (Week 23 and beyond), the Nets, Rockets, Pacers and Suns join the Raptors and Spurs with a league-high 13 games.
Solid playoff schedules are appealing but as always, you'll want to be wary of juggernaut teams or comfortable playoff squads that will rest their players in the second half. You might only get three games out of guys like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan in some of those weeks. It'll get even more hectic as you get closer to the very end of the year so you'll need to keep in mind which teams have something to play for.
While the league continues to tweak the schedule to help out the on-court product, there’s still enough for fantasy owners to pick at to maximize their chances of winning. It’s not what it used to be what some clever maneuvering and careful planning can result in a big boost in the aggregate. Happy drafting.
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