2020 Draft Guide: Shutdown/Rest Risks
This season is going to be a weird one, and fantasy GMs are hoping and praying for some consistency. It’ll be hard enough navigating a reworked schedule that could change in a flash, to say nothing of players disappearing from lineups for 10 days at the drop of a hat. Life is an abyss of unpredictability.
We’re here to focus on the things we can control; if not control, at least be aware of. Players sit out games. Sometimes they’re injured, sometimes they’re hurt, sometimes they’re getting a breather in a busy part of the schedule. Whatever the case, you’re going to want to know who’s at risk of those extra DNPs.
When preparing for this exercise, there are a few things you’ll want to consider. Firstly, players who are coming off significant injuries. They’ll be handled cautiously, as always. Secondly, players with extensive history. Part and parcel with the first group, teams will want to take it easy on players to avoid any serious aggravations of longstanding issues. Thirdly, older players. Healthy or not, teams will give their elder statesman some time on the shelf as a proactive measure. Last but not least, we have the context-dependent players; guys who might be older on bad teams that embrace a youth movement or players on expiring deals that could end up missing time to help preserve their trade value. That group will thread the needle a bit, and there’s no telling exactly how teams will handle the guys in that category.
Atlanta Hawks
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter
Capela is the major concern after last season was lost to heel injuries, as big men and foot problems are a bad mix. It’s possible that the Hawks also take it easy on Huerter, albeit to a lesser extent, after he battled some knee issues last season as well.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Hawks are a young team on the rise with no veterans who are at risk of being shut down as Atlanta hopes to be playing meaningful games right to the end.
Brooklyn Nets
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, DeAndre Jordan
Irving and Durant are obvious rest cases, and we’ll see if Steve Nash opts to stagger the DNPs to make sure that one superstar is playing every night. Jordan’s also in that boat as a veteran who wouldn’t suffer from a random night off here and there. As it’s currently constructed, the Nets’ roster has enough depth that some extra rest during the year can be built in fairly painlessly.
Shutdown Risks: None
If the Nets are shutting anyone down it’s because they either got hurt or things have gone very, very poorly.
Boston Celtics
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: Kemba Walker, Tristan Thompson, Daniel Theis
Walker’s already going to miss the start of the season and couldn’t get his knees right despite a couple full months off, this after an aggressive management plan that Boston used throughout its seeding games in the bubble. Moreover, that slow ramp-up happened after Walker had four months off because of the pandemic. His knees are a significant concern at this point and the Celtics will protect their PG.
Thompson makes the list because of his veteran status and a preseason hamstring strain that cost him all of training camp. Theis probably won’t get extra rest until the Celtics get Thompson back healthy but their depth at center affords them the opportunity to exercise some caution with a guy who underwent an offseason knee scope and always seems to be battling something.
Shutdown Risks: Kemba Walker
At this point, if anyone’s going to have the brakes pumped, it’ll be Walker.
Charlotte Hornets
First half back-to-backs: 9
Rest (B2B) Risks: None
This might change in the second half but early one we’re not projecting anyone gets regular B2B rest as the Hornets look to stay competitive.
Shutdown Risks: Cody Zeller, Bismack Biyombo
Just like last season, the Hornets’ two veteran Cs could start picking up some DNP-CDs to make room for younger options. Last season it was a situation where two of Zeller, Biyombo and Willy Hernangomez would play each night, but this year the Hornets have added Vernon Carey Jr. and Nick Richards. If Charlotte’s not close to the playoffs then one of the vets is likely coming out of the rotation.
Chicago Bulls
First half back-to-backs: 8
Rest (B2B) Risks: Otto Porter, Wendell Carter Jr.
Not much here besides two players that dealt with significant injury troubles last season.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Bulls have the talent and the coach to fight for the playoffs so at this point we’re not projecting anyone to take a seat as the season wears on. It also helps that the Bulls only added one rookie to the mix.
Cleveland Cavaliers
First half back-to-backs: 9
Rest (B2B) Risks: Kevin Love
One of the most obvious calls in the league.
Shutdown Risks: Kevin Love, Andre Drummond
Fairly straightforward. The Cavs are bad and would probably prefer that these expensive big men aren’t on the roster for the long haul, so when the time comes you can expect the days off to start flowing.
Dallas Mavericks
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell, Luka Doncic
Porzingis and Powell are obvious given their leg issues. Doncic makes this list because he’s going to shoulder an insane workload and started to deal with his own nagging injuries last season. It shouldn’t be a regular thing but sneaking some extra rest in isn’t out of the question.
Shutdown Risks: Kristaps Porzingis
The Mavs are going for it. KP’s the only one at risk, and that’s only if he comes back and can’t get right over the course of the season.
Denver Nuggets
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Gary Harris
Barton just made his preseason debut after sitting out all of the league’s restart in Orlando, so he may have some extra days off headed his way. Something similar can be said for Harris, who was injured before returning in the playoffs and has a lengthy history of ailments. Porter’s a bit of a wild card, and a condensed schedule in his first season as a real rotation guy doesn’t help. Significant back problems are the only reason he fell to Denver in the draft to begin with so the Nuggets might play it carefully here, especially with Porter expecting to play every night for the first time in his career.
Shutdown Risks: None
Nothing to see here.
Detroit Pistons
First half back-to-backs: 9
Rest (B2B) Risks: Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose
A rebuilding team with injury-prone veterans. Simple.
Shutdown Risks: Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Jahlil Okafor
Rose is likely to be traded at some point so he’s the only candidate for a first-half shutdown, while Griffin (who may also be traded, though it’s more unlikely given his contract) and Okafor could take a seat in the second half to make way for younger options.
Golden State Warriors
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Kelly Oubre, Kevon Looney
Green picks up a ton of nicks and bumps because of his playing style and typically gets nights off to make sure they don’t become larger problems, while the latter three are all coming off significant injuries. We’d put Curry closer to Green’s end of the spectrum since his was just a hand problem but it’s not hard to see him getting an extra night of rest every so often.
Shutdown Risks: None
There will be shutdowns if another early-season injury makes this another lost campaign but as of now there’s nobody who’s an obvious candidate.
Houston Rockets
First half back-to-backs: 5
Rest (B2B) Risks: John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins
Wall and Cousins are both coming off Achilles tears so it shouldn’t come as a surprise when they inevitably sit out half of Houston’s back-to-backs.
Shutdown Risks: None
Again, none while the Rockets try and play it straight despite the Harden drama. A trade probably blows up the roster beyond recognition anyway so no need to think about how that plays out.
Indiana Pacers
First half back-to-backs: 8
Rest (B2B) Risks: Victor Oladipo, Jeremy Lamb, TJ Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon
The Pacers have yet to determine how they’ll handle Oladipo on B2B situations but he’s the top candidate for rest aside from Lamb, who will be returning from an ACL tear. Warren and Sabonis are coming off bouts of plantar fasciitis, and we’d cite Warren as the larger risk given the fact that Sabonis got a couple months of rest in. Brogdon’s also dealt with his share of injuries so the Pacers could be proactive given their backcourt depth.
Shutdown Risks: Victor Oladipo
Oladipo’s health and the murkiness surrounding his contract situation make him the clear shutdown candidate, if there is one, on this roster.
LA Clippers
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Beverley, Serge Ibaka
Mr. Load Management himself is definitely getting some nights off. Beverley has been hit with a number of minor injuries over the years while Ibaka’s knees have given him issue in the past and the Raptors maximized his health by sprinkling in some extra days off. Leonard’s the only guarantee but it wouldn’t be surprising to see other vets get the occasional DNP.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Clippers are going for a title so it’ll be all hands on deck.
Los Angeles Lakers
First half back-to-backs: 5
Rest (B2B) Risks: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol
James and Davis are coming off an extremely short turnaround after the title run and will definitely get some extra nights off, especially in the first half of the season. Gasol dealt with multiple hamstring issues last season and the Lakers will try to keep him healthy for another deep postseason run, so he’s also basically guaranteed to get additional rest.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Lakers are going for a title so it’ll be all hands on deck.
Memphis Grizzlies
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Jaren Jackson Jr., Justise Winslow, Jontay Porter
Jackson and Winslow will not be ready to start the season, which means they’ll likely be handled carefully between that and their extensive injury histories. The same can be said for Porter, who hasn’t played a competitive game in about two years due to knee injuries.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Grizzlies will be in the thick of a crazy playoff race so any shutdowns will be the result of an in-season injury.
Miami Heat
First half back-to-backs: 5
Rest (B2B) Risks: Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala, Bam Adebayo
The Heat also have an extremely short turnaround after going to the Finals so it’ll be ample rest for the veterans, with Adebayo’s shoulder injury and overall importance also landing him on this list.
Shutdown Risks: None
Miami won’t be shutting anyone down.
Milwaukee Bucks
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
The Bucks can cruise through the regular season as they have the past few years, and last year they started being more aggressive in seeking out nights off for minor ailments. Expect that to continue this year.
Shutdown Risks: None
Nobody’s sitting out with the Bucks aiming for a title.
Minnesota Timberwolves
First half back-to-backs: 8
Rest (B2B) Risks: None
The Wolves have a number of players who were injured last season, namely Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, as well as an older Ricky Rubio, but nobody that looks like an obvious choice to be a clear sit risk. There will probably be some nights off throughout the season but it doesn’t look like a situation where you’ll be able to predict them way in advance.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Wolves have a ton to prove with a roster full of young talent so everyone should prepare for a full slate.
New Orleans Pelicans
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Zion Williamson, Steven Adams
Zion’s been working without restrictions in training camp but it would be far from surprising to see him get the occasional maintenance day even if the Pelicans won’t be as militant about it as last season. Adams is perpetually dinged up and usually plays through it all, so he’s fairly low risk, but still lands on the list of guys to watch out for.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Pelicans won’t shut anyone down unless they’re out of the playoff mix early, which we don’t foresee.
New York Knicks
First half back-to-backs: 9
Rest (B2B) Risks: None
Tom Thibodeau, limiting people’s minutes? Sure. There might be a few situations where older players sit out of B2Bs but nobody obvious at the season’s start.
Shutdown Risks: Alec Burks, Julius Randle
Unlike last season, the Knicks divested themselves of older placeholders. As such there aren’t clear shutdown candidates, but Burks is a trade candidate on a one-year deal and Randle is a guy who’s popped up in trade rumors. It also doesn’t help that the Knicks drafted another power forward in the lottery this year.
Oklahoma City Thunder
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: George Hill, Al Horford, Trevor Ariza
Any older player on the Thunder roster is at risk, though there should be ample opportunity to produce when they are on the floor. The Ariza situation is particularly complicated as he is still away from the team with less than a week to go before the season.
Shutdown Risks: George Hill, Al Horford, Trevor Ariza
Again, any older player on the Thunder roster is at risk, especially any who remain with OKC after the trade deadline.
Orlando Magic
Rest (B2B) Risks: Mo Bamba, Al-Farouq Aminu
A pair of players coming off significant bouts of illness and injury, respectively. If anything, it’s nice to see Markelle Fultz not on this list.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Magic are right on that line of teams that might not have a realistic playoff chance so this could change but at the moment we think they’ll be in the race long enough to avoid any shutdowns.
Philadelphia 76ers
First half back-to-backs: 6
Rest (B2B) Risks: Joel Embiid, Danny Green, Ben Simmons
You know Embiid’s sitting half of most, if not all, Philly’s B2Bs. Simmons is usually free and clear of that treatment but coming off a knee issue that knocked him out of the playoffs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sixers try and ease him along. Green’s a veteran who’s no stranger to random DNPs and that won’t change with a compressed schedule.
Shutdown Risks: None
Nothing until someone gets hurt.
Phoenix Suns
First half back-to-backs: 9
Rest (B2B) Risks: Chris Paul
The old head on a young squad, CP3 is the only major risk here, and even then he’s looking safer than most other guys in his age bracket.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Suns are going for it and we won’t be able to speculate on silly season pickups as a fun annual tradition in the desert comes to an end.
Portland Trail Blazers
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: Rodney Hood, Zach Collins, Carmelo Anthony, Jusuf Nurkic?
Hood and Collins are coming off significant injuries and Collins won’t be ready for the start of the season, so that’s an easy call. Anthony might be saved from DNPs by moving to a lower-minute role off the bench but a couple rest days scattered around the schedule makes sense given Portland’s depth. Nurkic is the wild card – he looked great in the bubble but the Blazers may opt to ease him in a bit just to ensure he’s healthy for the long run. He’s not a high risk but a few nights off wouldn’t be a shock.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Blazers figure to be fighting for seeding rather than their playoff lives this time around, but that shouldn’t force anyone into an early offseason.
Sacramento Kings
First half back-to-backs: 9
Rest (B2B) Risks: Marvin Bagley
Bagley barely played last season and while the Kings want him to look good, they also don’t want to send him back to the infirmary for an extended stretch again.
Shutdown Risks: Cory Joseph, Nemanja Bjelica, Jabari Parker
The Kings stayed in neutral while the rest of the West found the gas pedal so these veterans should fade as the season wears on, much to Luke Walton’s chagrin.
San Antonio Spurs
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick White, Rudy Gay, Patty Mills, Keldon Johnson
The Spurs are ready to roll with their young guards, which puts everyone else at risk. White and Johnson land here as a result of their preseason injuries, and White carries more risk given that he’s set to miss at least a chunk of the season.
Shutdown Risks: LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan
All the usual veterans are here, though we would also say that DeRozan is the least likely of this bunch to get shut down.
Toronto Raptors
First half back-to-backs: 5
Rest (B2B) Risks: Kyle Lowry, Aron Baynes
The Raptors are a decidedly younger team this season but they’ll still make sure their older players are getting adequate rest. Expect both players to have their minutes monitored in the early going as well, which might mitigate the risk of full DNPs later.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Raptors should still be gunning for home court in the playoffs even with a new-look roster so it’d take a total collapse for them to consider shutting guys down.
Utah Jazz
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: None
If anyone’s at risk of getting some extra rest days it’s probably Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, but that’s about it.
Shutdown Risks: None
No reason for the Jazz to shut anyone down as they aim for a deep playoff run.
Washington Wizards
First half back-to-backs: 7
Rest (B2B) Risks: Russell Westbrook
Westbrook’s been getting the B2B treatment for a couple years now and that won’t be changing under Scott Brooks in Washington.
Shutdown Risks: None
The Wizards could dial it back on guys like Westbrook and Bradley Beal if they fall out of it (Beal did sit in the bubble, after all) but it doesn’t seem likely. The team’s good enough to play meaningful games late into the schedule.
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