2022 Draft Guide: Busts

It’s certainly satisfying when anything in life works out, and in most cases it’s doubly satisfying to credit that success to hard work. It’s a bit sweeter to know that your decisions — the things you chose to do — worked out as planned or better. On the flip side, sometimes success is about the things you don’t do. Limiting mistakes can be just as impactful as doing positive things even if it doesn’t bring about the same level of glory. Getting out of your own way is a good practice in any walk of life, and fantasy hoops falls under that umbrella.

You’re going to want to crow about any sleepers that hit, or any huge value picks that come through. You’re also going to want to dodge players who are primed to disappoint you, not only for their own subpar value but the opportunity cost. Spending a middle-round pick on a player who’s on the downswing also means you pass up dozens of players who are heading in the opposite direction; players who end up with your opponents.

With that in mind, let’s dance through the mine field and call out some players who have serious bust potential.

Clint Capela

You can see the writing on the wall for Capela in Atlanta. Over his final 38 games last season he averaged just 25.6 mpg and produced top-115/90 value in 8/9-cat leagues. The former early-round standout was unable to separate himself from the hard-charging Onyeka Okongwu, who offers up more athleticism and a dynamic presence for the young Hawks.

Okongwu is coming for Capela’s minutes and possibly his starting job. Atlanta’s offseason moves point to that outcome and it’ll only be a matter of time. They'll be running two-PG lineups with a pair of All-Stars, including one with an elite rebounding guard who loves to grab-and-go. The Hawks should be able to push the pace this year and that style of play is going to demand a swifter presence up front, with Capela simply too slow to punish teams in the transition opportunities that Atlanta’s going to create.

In the box score, Capela finished with a four-year low in rebounds, a five-year low in blocks and a six-year low in scoring. He also posted a six-year low in free throws, though Capela has been so bad at that his whole career that the impact is lessened — you weren’t competing in FT% regardless of how poor those numbers were. As injuries continue to mount and the end draws closer, Capela will continue to slide down the rankings. Fantasy GMs haven’t quite caught onto it yet, with Capela’s average ADP across the three major platforms (ESPN, Yahoo, Fantrax) checking in around 85, with him going as high as the early 70s in some places.

Currently being drafted with the expectation of a bounce-back rather than continued decline despite all the evidence at hand, Capela’s a player we’d avoid unless you can get him at a significant discount and are putting together a specific roster build that leverages his strengths. That second half of last year might be the new normal, and that’s not even accounting for Okongwu’s continued improvement.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

You won’t have to travel far to find the next bust, with Bogdanovic looking dicey after getting some fortunate breaks in his first two years with the Hawks. Those seasons produced top-90/70 and top-65/50 value, and Bogdanovic does get props for taking advantage of the opportunities in front of him — it’s not his fault that De’Andre Hunter got hurt, but he was ready to put a death grip on his elevated role. Perhaps this is the season when Bogdanovic’s luck runs out.

His own offseason knee injury has pushed his ADP down towards the later rounds, which helps, but don’t go about this thinking of Bogdanovic as a potential impact stash. Like Capela above, Bogdanovic is going to feel the squeeze of Dejounte Murray’s arrival. First and foremost, he’s a much better player than Kevin Huerter, with the Hawks now guaranteed to have an All-Star playing SG when they have their best lineups on the court. That means Bogdanovic, whose defense is too weak to play at SF over the aforementioned Hunter, is locked into a bench role until injuries strike. That’s happened for him in two consecutive seasons, so it’s not unprecedented, but you’re rolling the dice on it happening again. On top of all that, with Murray and Trae Young pulling the strings, Bogdanovic’s avenues to lead-guard minutes have all but evaporated.

Some steps back are being baked into Bogdanovic’s value, as you’d expect with the arrival of a player like Murray, but Bogdanovic’s floor is even lower than you might think.

Jaden Ivey

Ivey is the latest in a long line of rookies who will end up being overvalued for fantasy drafts. He’s the type of athletic marvel who can jam-pack the highlight reels, drawing all kinds of attention that will inflate his fantasy stock. There’s a lot to love about him as a player, between his explosive athleticism and the fire with which he plays the game, but fantasy GMs need to keep expectations in check.

Ivey was a dominant scorer at Purdue, but the rest of his statistical output leaves something to be desired: 17.3 points, but only 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 triples and 0.9 steals per contest. There are also questions about the legitimacy of his 3-point shot after a 10-point swing between his two seasons, grading out to a .322 average over his NCAA career. NBA defenses will test Ivey’s jumper, which could be a bad mix considering his score-first instincts.

Playing off Cade Cunningham will open up driving lanes to be sure, and Ivey is going to light up the court in transition. It’ll be dynamite whenever he finds a lane to the rim. But this is a statistical profile that spells trouble as a player learns the ropes in the NBA. Inefficient volume scorers can be disastrous for fantasy teams, especially when there’s not a strong history of ancillary production to fall back on. Ivey has a bright career ahead of him with All-Star potential that’s obvious to any observer. We’re just not sure that he’ll make the grade in fantasy right away.

Julius Randle

Randle has been a letdown since his brilliant first season with the Knicks, and his presence in trade rumors over the last couple of offseasons isn’t a shock. But for as long as he remains in New York, he’ll be an offensive pillar, for better or worse.

Now armed with the reputation of a chucker, there’s going to be some push and pull as Randle learns to play with the organization’s new crown jewel, Jalen Brunson, who will command plenty of touches himself. If Randle was unhappy with RJ Barrett’s rising status last year, just wait until this one with Barrett and Brunson both on big new contracts. The Knicks are assembling a roster for a Randle-less future and could just be biding their time until they can find a way to get him off the roster. That uncertainty alone is something to be mindful of, as a Randle trade could either install him as the third option on a good team or let him surrender to his worst basketball instincts as a core guy on a bad team.

While adding Brunson does take away some of the big man’s potential usage, it should also lead to better offense — and more efficient scoring — if Randle is willing to play ball. Last season felt close to rock bottom, with Randle grading out as a top-65/130 player in 8/9-cat formats, so we may end up seeing him improve upon last year’s numbers. That said, declining usage is a hard sell for a player whose main attraction is scoring volume (and rebounds, and now Randle’s playing next to a newly extended Mitchell Robinson and a high-level free agent center in Isaiah Hartenstein). The playmaking potential that Randle flashes at his best figures to be limited with Brunson at the helm, and things could very well come down to whether or not Randle can drag up his FG% impact by shooting above league average on a little less volume.

On top of all that, Randle’s ADP is making this a non-starter. Typically off the board in the 60s at the latest, he’s being drafted to produce a bounce-back season and has no shot at meeting those marks in 9-cat. It looks like many managers are still chasing the high of a couple seasons ago, which has priced Randle out of any possible profit.

Christian Wood

The idea of Christian Wood is appealing, in both fantasy and reality. A smooth-scoring big man who can bomb away from deep and crash the glass? Sign anyone up. As we, and the Rockets, and the train of teams before them, learned, however, Wood has some strides to make before he becomes a real winning basketball presence. At this point in time, Wood is a good Bad Team Player; the kind of guy who can produce some monstrous box scores while giving it all back and more on the defensive end of the floor. There’s enough raw skill to make you believe that Wood could be a force in the league, but a lack of attention to detail has limited him to this point in his career. There’s a reason that he’s bounced around despite impressive statistical output.

The tolerance for that figures to be low on a Dallas team that’s trying to improve upon last year’s Western Conference Finals run. Wood won’t be allowed to loaf around on defense, and he won’t be able to pull the “highest paid player” card either. Whether or not he can do that will be the crux of things, though perhaps a more competitive environment can snap him to attention. It’s to everyone’s benefit, as a better on-court version of Wood means more minutes, which means more fantasy numbers. To this point we have yet to see Wood address those concerns.

Even if that sorts itself out, Wood still has to start hitting his free throws. Last season he was a top-80 player — he’s currently being drafted around there, if not a round or two higher in some places — while shooting .623 at the stripe. He was .738 from March onward, so it’s possible that he gets close to league average, but Wood’s going to have to do that over a full season before we trust it. Until then, you’re looking at a volume-based player who’s in line for a lesser role on a team that won’t put up with his bad habits, with a huge flaw in his stat set. Wood has the upside to figure this all out but he’s going to be more of a top-100 guy than what he’s currently being drafted as; a player who is going to jump a couple rounds up the rankings despite a handful of things working against him.

Collin Sexton

There’s a lot to like about Sexton’s new setup on the surface. He’s a talented player trying to bounce back, with the bag secured, on a team that should be willing to plug him in as a core player. There’s no established offensive hierarchy and the Jazz, unfocused on winning games this year, can let Sexton play at full tilt since the scoreboard isn’t the focus. Our skepticism isn’t about Sexton in general, but rather that people are getting a bit too eager to project him for maximum production.

First and foremost is the fact that we don’t know how Sexton will look after tearing his meniscus early last season. It’s the type of injury that could limit his burst and lift on jumpers, and the Jazz might decide to play it safe and ease him into the season after such a long layoff. They also have enough backcourt depth (for now) between Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jared Butler to go that route comfortably. Sexton’s a more dynamic player than anyone else on the roster but the Jazz aren’t short on alternatives if they want to really prioritize his long-term health.

Secondly, there should be a little bit of concern about how Sexton’s game will play in this kind of environment. The Jazz seem like an organization that wants to build winning habits while losing games, which should keep things on the rails, but a score-happy guy on a team with a wide open distribution of shots could be trouble. Sexton has a couple of seasons of plus-efficiency under his belt which will help mitigate some of the risk, but those came alongside an accomplished playmaker in Darius Garland. Will his efficiency hold up without an elite table-setter? Will he get enough volume to overcome that if it doesn’t? There’s no doubting that Sexton is a real talent in the league, but his circumstances in Utah have a bunch of “maybes” strung together, and it won’t take many mishaps for Sexton to come in under peak levels. He doesn’t really steal the ball, he doesn’t hit a ton of threes and he doesn’t hand out assists by the handful. He’s walking the tightrope even with his clear runway.

Remember, his finest season to date resulted in top-75/105 value, so seeing him drafted in the 70s and 80s, coming off the injury, is already a bit too aggressive. There’s enough usage available that Sexton should be a reasonable top-100 option in 8-cat leagues, but anyone playing with turnovers will have a lot more to think about. He’s not so much a bust in 8-cat leagues as a fade, but managers aren’t giving themselves any wiggle room at Sexton’s current price despite all the reasons for caution.

RJ Barrett

Barrett is a player who continues to be overdrafted, in part because of the team he plays for, in part because of his draft slot, and in part because people want to get ahead of the curve on his big leap. His ADP sits inside the top-100, with managers seduced by his empty scoring totals. Barrett’s best season — and the only one in which he was close to league average from the field — finished with top-140/175 returns. He’s had stretches of being a middle-round guy in the past but nothing that suggests it’s a permanent state for him.

The current market valuation on Barrett is placing a lot of hope in Brunson sorting out the offense and creating easy looks for his teammates. Barrett’s own contract extension cements his place in the pecking order but Brunson’s arrival will take shots away from everyone else, meaning that Barrett could have to do more with a little bit less when it comes to scoring efficiently. His rebounds, assists and steals have never been much to write home about; if Barrett is going to make headway, it’ll be because he starts knocking down more shots.

With one passable year and two bad ones under his belt in that regard, it’s hard to justify Barrett’s ADP. It’s also difficult to imagine him getting close to that kind of return even if things go positively. Climbing up from outside the top-200 leaves lots of room for improvement on the table, but it also means that even a sizable jump could still leave you well outside the top-100 looking in.

Russell Westbrook

Free space. The various pre-rankings you’ll see guarantee bust status, as Westrbook’s ADP is going to be anchored way too high.

*Originally published October 9, 2022