2022 Draft Guide: Sleepers

It’s time for everyone’s favorite subject!

Sleepers are the most fun thing to think about as we barrel towards opening night. Being able to get it right with sleepers is the proving ground — anyone can tell you that Nikola Jokic will be good, but not everyone gets a chance to draft him. When you pick the right sleepers, they’ll take you on to victory and give you the right to smack talk your entire league for letting such a valuable player fall in your lap.

We’ve had a pretty good run of things over the years, hitting on over half of our calls with some big wins like Richaun Holmes, Norman Powell, Davis Bertans (before the contract), Jordan Poole and Cam Johnson. We’ve even helped out deep-league GMs with calls on Kenrich Williams and Max Strus. We’ve got something for everyone here, but the one thing all the names below have in common is that your leaguemates are overlooking them.

Standard Leagues

Onyeka Okongwu, C, Atlanta Hawks

It’s possible that too many people know about Okongwu for him to be a “sleeper” in the strictest sense, but even if that’s the case, there’s no reason he’s being drafted so late in most leagues. With an ADP out by No. 120 and beyond on the major platforms, there’s multiple rounds of profit to be had, and even more if a few things break Okongwu’s way.

Clint Capela is getting creakier by the day, and last season it was clear that the Hawks aren’t sold on him as their long-term answer. The talk this summer has been about getting more time for Okongwu, who brings more offensive upside and a higher degree of athleticism to the court than the older Capela. Last year, in part due to the buildup of injuries and in part due to performance, Capela only averaged 25.6 mpg over the final 38 games of the year. In that same span, Okongwu averaged 19.4 and was able to produce 7.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.1 blocks while shooting .663 from the field. It put him on the cusp of 12-team value, though he was a reasonable streamer for boards and blocks, and had small pockets of top-150 play during that stretch.

The on-court tide is turning here, and the addition of Dejounte Murray only helps OO out. Murray’s rebounding prowess means the team doesn’t necessarily need an elite glass-cleaner like Capela to secure loose balls anymore, but rather someone who can help out on that end and then run the open floor to create transition opportunities. You’re going to see a lot of possessions where Murray grabs boards and looks to kickstart the break; Okongwu’s a much better fit for those instincts than Capela.

The two centers were already on the way to a timeshare and there are valid reasons to think that Okongwu can grab the majority of the playing time as the season goes on. He’s at least a late-rounder because of his stat set but there’s a strong chance he becomes a top-100 guy, and middle-round value is on the board if Okongwu can hit his upside.

Jalen Smith/Isaiah Jackson, F/Cs, Indiana Pacers

Two for one here on the next wave of bigs for the rebuilding Pacers. Smith is the better name, if the lesser known, because he’s coming out of the gates with a starting spot and has enough shooting ability to play at a few different spots. Last year was a real roller coaster for Smith, who entered the season with the Suns declining his third-year option. COVID and injuries allowed him to get onto the court, and Smith played well in his opportunities, making him more appealing on the trade market. The Pacers stepped to the plate and gave Smith even more time to work with, which led to two months of top-90 value to close the season.

As a Pacer, Smith averaged 13.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers in 24.7 mpg with .531/.373.760 shooting splits. That was with a mish-mash roster that was just playing out the string. With Indiana entering the season at full health and Smith looking at increased playing time, there’s reason to believe that another step forward is in store. As long as his 3-point shooting stays around league average or better, Smith will have a shot at top-70 numbers. He might lose out on a few blocks now that he’s playing alongside Myles Turner, but even then he’ll play enough to partially offset any per-minute declines, with increases in his other stats to help out. And even that arrangement with Turner could be temporary.

That’s where Jackson comes in. Turner will start the season in Indiana but all signs point to him being traded eventually, and possibly sooner rather than later. Jackson was a top-95 option after the trade deadline last season, delivering 11.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 2.2 blocks per game while shooting .565 from the field and .684 at the line. That was in 21.2 mpg, without Turner, as Jackson did battle foul trouble problems at times. The Pacers are clearly invested him as an answer at center in the long term and Jackson should get at least 15 mpg even with Turner around. That’ll be enough to put him in the late-round conversation as a blocks specialist, with a huge ramp up towards the middle rounds once Turner is out of the picture.

Part sleeper, part second-half stash, Jackson should have no troubles outdoing his current ADP by a significant margin.

Isaiah Hartenstein, C, New York Knicks

Hartenstein was a sneaky good fantasy player last year, putting together a top-145 season as a reserve behind Ivica Zubac. He set all kinds of career-bests: minutes (17.8), FG% (.627), points (8.2), rebounds (4.9), assists (2.3), steals (0.7), blocks (1.1) and 3-pointers (0.2) along the way, too. Unfortunately for him, between Zubac and the team’s small-ball personnel, there wasn’t a lot of room for Hartenstein to really show off his versatile game. That could change with the big man now in New York, operating as the top backup to Mitchell Robinson.

Going from behind Zubac to behind Robinson may not seem like an improvement, but to this point Tom Thibodeau has yet to totally commit to Robinson as one of the player’s in his trusted circle, which is to say he isn’t guaranteed 35 mpg. Hartenstein is good enough to actively chip away at that, with a mix of size, speed and stability that Thibodeau might prefer to Robinson’s style of play. The stat set is strong here and there are better odds of a timeshare than people think. If Hartenstein was capable of top-150 numbers in under 18 minutes a night, 22 or 23 minutes could very well make him a top-100 threat. Add in Robinson’s injury risk and there’s further upside to play with.

Caleb Martin, F, Miami Heat

The Heat had a quiet offseason, losing PJ Tucker and not doing much to add to their rotation. That leaves a starting spot open, and while Tyler Herro is a candidate to jump in, Jimmy Butler has also indicated that he’s not into the idea of playing a lot of PF. That leaves Martin ready to step in, a lot like he did last year during Butler’s various absences.

He set career-high averages in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and field goal percentage, finishing in the top-180 in 22.9 mpg and earning a three-year, $20 million contract in the offseason. In his 12 starts, Martin averaged 13.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 3-pointers in 31.6 mpg while shooting .528 from the floor. Those all represent increases on his full averages besides the steals, pointing to another jump in production with the Heat needing someone to replace Tucker’s workload.

It’s not a simple extrapolation since Martin’s scoring figures to come down alongside Butler instead of as a direct replacement, but that’s not necessarily how he gets his fantasy value anyway. He can play in multiple spots, deliver in multiple categories and has a bigger role lined up for him. There’s a lot to like in Martin as a late-round flier, as it won’t take much to get him near the top-100 without considering a big leap in his own skills.

Tari Eason, F, Houston Rockets

Eason enters the league with some serious stat magnet potential. He put up 16.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks in just 24.4 mpg, meaning that his stats weren’t a product of crazy volume at LSU. His free throw shooting and jump shot form improved dramatically throughout his two seasons, and while there’s still some uncertainty with both it’s clear that he has multi-cat potential.

Houston’s a great landing spot for a guy like Eason. The Rockets’ depth chart is more crowded than you might think but Eason gives them an element they’ve been missing for a while — a versatile defender who can create chaos in passing lanes. The big challenge for Eason might be showing that he can rack up numbers as part of a system rather than zipping around the court outside of team structure, though Houston’s going to give him enough latitude to go out and play no matter what.

While he may never be an offensive threat at the NBA level, Eason plays with an attacking mentality that coaches will like and is always playing hard. Some playmaking chops only add to the appeal here. He’s a per-minute stud in waiting and will get on the standard-league radar even with modest scoring numbers. If Eason’s 3-point shot continues to improve and his defensive instincts aren’t too wild, he suddenly has a nice pathway to big minutes. He’s a real upside swing in the late rounds, but his floor should deliver good ROI too.

Deeper Leagues

Jaylen Nowell, G, Minnesota Timberwolves

It flew under the radar unless you were hyperfocused on the Wolves last season, but Nowell outplayed Malik Beasley for a good stretch of the season and was given the promotion by the coaching staff, too. Most of his output came when some combo of D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley were out of the lineup, but in those instances he was always a reasonable bet for points and triples. The Wolves look totally different this season as both Beasley and Beverley are gone, with their depth chart of true guard types basically down to Russell and Jordan McLaughlin.

Nowell finds himself in a great spot for production and already established some good vibes last year. He’ll help out in the scoring department, which is very tough to address at the end of deep-league drafts, and shouldn’t break the bank. He only played about 20 mpg at his peak, which was good enough for top-165 value during a few weeks in the winter of 2021. With less competition for playing time, that could be Nowell’s new floor as a rotation fixture. Snag him at the end of 16-team drafts and enjoy the ride; he should have no troubles getting into the top-200. If you’re in an even deeper league, obviously the potential return becomes even more appealing considering Nowell’s bottom-barrel ADP.

Zach Collins, F/C, San Antonio Spurs

Injuries have unfortunately played a huge part in Collins’ lackluster career so far but he was finally able to string some real appearances together last year, his first in San Antonio. Those 28 games yielded 7.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.5 3-pointers in 17.9 mpg, showcasing some of the old versatile stretch-five skills that made him a hot prospect out of Gonzaga.

The Spurs are also rebuilding, that direction made clear by the Dejounte Murray trade in the offseason, and that means that a guy like Collins should get a good look as a former top prospect with some untapped upside. It’s a good developmental environment for him and the potential for a Jakob Poeltl trade at some point means that we could see Collins playing huge minutes by the end of the year. Health will always be a concern, but the variety of Collins’ production gets him close to the top-200 even in a strict backup role. Roll the dice at the end of 16-team drafts and don’t be surprised if he ends up going from useful presence to must-start guy over the course of the campaign.

Dean Wade, F, Cleveland Cavaliers

While the Cavs continue to forge ahead with the fun strategy of adding as many good players as possible and figuring the rest out later, all of their moving and shaking has left the small forward spot up for grabs. Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro are the favorites to take the lion’s share of playing time, but Wade is a dark horse candidate to leapfrog both and start, as his low-maintenance game might cause fewer waves alongside the team’s stars. He’s also coming off a shortened season because of a knee injury, so he figures to be a bit of a forgotten man despite starting in over half of his appearances last year.

There’s a track record of production here, with Wade finishing the 2020-21 season as a top-150 guy over the last handful of weeks, and he has the ability to pitch in rebounds, steals, points and triples on decent percentages when everything is clicking. With a fairly open competition for SF minutes and the likelihood that Kevin Love falls short of last season’s 74 games, there’s going to be work available for Wade, who has done nothing but meet his benchmarks since signing as an undrafted free agent. The Cavs like his game and he can support a variety of teammates thanks to his understated skills. Some better free throw shooting should push Wade to the top-275 even without statistical gains elsewhere, so consider him towards the end of 20-team drafts. A top-150 season is the best case scenario but Wade looks like a reasonable bet to be in the mix for the 14-16-team range when the dust settles.

Gabe Vincent, G, Miami Vincent

The Heat seem to cook up an unheralded guard who becomes fantasy relevant every season, from Duncan Robinson to Max Strus and now Gabe Vincent. He was slotted in for 27 starts in his 68 appearances last season and played well enough to keep himself in the mix going forward, especially as Kyle Lowry gets older and either misses more time or has his workloads dialed back.

After a quiet first two seasons in the league, Vincent hit .368 from distance last year and was able to hit the streaming radar whenever Lowry was out. Like Martin, Vincent will also benefit from Tucker’s departure, as everyone slides down a position to cover the minutes at PF, and it’s clear that he’s the team’s backup PG. His constant presence on the injury report for minor leg injuries is annoying, but likely a product of Miami’s extremely thorough reporting practices. If you need assists, threes and steals at the end of a deep-league draft, don’t skip over Vincent. He’s a reasonable bet for top-180 numbers and is a relative unknown to most NBA fans.

John Konchar, G, Memphis Grizzlies

Last year’s Deep Cut Special, we don’t have to spend a ton of time talking about Konchar. From college to the G League to his days as a deep reserve, he has a knack for stuffing the stat sheet with all kinds of goodies; he’s the rare guard who can chip in a couple blocks and a handful of rebounds. Last season he averaged 4.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers in 17.9 mpg, shooting .515 from the field and a disappointing .551 at the line, finishing just outside the top-260. He was a top-180 player in 9-cat by per-36 rankings, underscoring how much higher he might be able to go if he can get some more playing time, not to mention how easy it’d be for him to climb up the rankings by simply hitting a couple more free throws every week.

The Grizzlies are another team that didn’t really add much this offseason, only losing De’Anthony Melton to the Sixers. Konchar’s contract extension suggests that the Grizz think he can capably step up, and while some of Melton’s minutes could end up with Ziaire Williams or others, Konchar is the most natural fit in that combo guard spot of the team’s remaining bench guys. If he can get closer to 24 mpg, Konchar should be able to sail into the top-200 with enough multi-cat upside to think he could be a top-180 asset with some good luck.

Deep Cut Special

Jalen Johnson, F, Atlanta Hawks

Johnson was entirely off the radar last season, buried on a deep Hawks team with enough competitive aspirations to avoid playing a rookie who needed a ton of development after a short NCAA season. There’s a different tune coming out of Atlanta this year, however, with Johnson expected to have a real opportunity at a rotation spot.

The departure of Danilo Gallinari creates a big void on the Atlanta bench, and while Justin Holiday is someone that could pitch in given the team’s ability to go super small, we’d expect that the Hawks give Johnson a fair shake thanks to his upside as a defender and playmaker. A big body with point-forward instincts, Johnson averaged 22.5 points, 11.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers while shooting .490 from the floor in over 34 minutes a night in the G League last season on the heels of turning 21.2 mpg into 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per game in 13 contests at Duke.

Defensive stats are a quick way to rocket up the fantasy rankings, and with Johnson’s ability to operate as a secondary playmaker and defend multiple positions, he could find enough playing time to threaten top-200 value after finishing last year outside the top-500. There are no guarantees here, but if Johnson earns regular playing time he’s got the skill set to become very valuable to the Hawks and very intriguing for fantasy managers.

*Originally published October 10, 2022