Weekly Report: Early Returns
Welcome to the Weekly Report! We’re going to use this space to try some stuff out every Wednesday during the fantasy season. It’ll be a mix of retrospective analysis, forward-looking calls and a little opinion sprinkled in throughout and we’ll find a rhythm that helps bring you, dear reader, as much value we can muster. Much like the start of the actual NBA season, it’ll be a feeling-out process, and we’ll divert from the norm when it’s called for. Let’s dive in.
Good Surprise
Lauri Markkanen finished at No. 7 in the 9-cat ranks last week. No. 7! If you were facing him, you almost certainly lost. Sorry about that. Obviously he won’t stay that high all year (right?) but the Jazz don’t really have a lot to commit to just yet and seem to be taking Markkanen out for a test drive as a potential long-term answer. They’re using him in lots of creative ways and he’s flourishing as a real first option for the first time in his career. It’s very early but he looks like FIBA Markkanen, which is what you want to hear. The steals and field goal percentage are a little inflated through this initial sample, but nothing else he’s done so far feels crazy out of line.
Special shoutout to Derrick White for finishing just outside the top-50 and being the best Celtics guard through one week. It’s entirely because of his defense and White will be boom-or-bust to the max all year, but apparently he’ll be worth the trouble.
Bad Surprise
Of the 393 players who took the floor in the first week of the year, the lowest-ranked player who’s nearly universally rostered is… Mo Bamba at No. 332. Oh dear.
The Magic could’ve easily let Bamba walk last season, knowing they had the No. 1 pick and plans to elevate Bol Bol. Instead they signed him — offering him more than multiple other teams in the process — and are now using him on the low end of a timeshare as their backup center. It hasn’t helped that Bol has been playing exceedingly well, but Bamba seems to have uncovered his floor at a shade under 13 mpg.
There’s too much upside to just cut him loose unless you’re in a shallow league, but things are trending in that direction. Try to give it at least a week, or until the first run of bad play from Bol pops up. The Magic couldn’t have just forked over that money to do this, and they know that Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. can fit together.
No Surprise
Isaiah Hartenstein finished inside the top-75 through one week. That was only two games, and one that involved 40 minutes thanks to Mitchell Robinson’s foul trouble, but numbers are numbers. Robinson’s foul trouble isn’t going to disappear entirely even if he’s vastly improved over the years, and Tom Thibodeau got an early chance to see how effective Hartenstein is on the court. He won’t always have explosive stat lines but Hartenstein is more than capable of this production with steady work.
Collin Sexton, meanwhile finished outside the top-190. When people got excited about Sexton getting traded to a rebuilding team, they seemed to skip a lot of steps. Namely, him being a backup point guard. And the Jazz having four backcourt players with starting experience. And Sexton coming off basically a lost season — nobody thought loose load management was on the way? And the impacts of Sexton’s knee injury on his game. He might be able to deliver when he gets up to speed and the roster logjam is addressed, but given the indefinite waiting period on both of those fronts it was clear that he was getting overdrafted.
30 Thoughts
Have you ever taken the time to sit down and just think? It’s hard! I can smell the smoke already. Anyway, this space is going to be for scattered fantasy-related musings about each team. This week we’re going to look at what happened over the first week-and-change and I’ll offer up one thing I’m buying and one thing I’m selling. Get ready for hot takes — and by that I mean a deference to long-term thinking and patience.
Atlanta: Buying both Trae Young and Dejounte Murray finishing in the first round by the end of the year. They fit together and they aren’t taking assist opportunities away from one another — shot volume for each should drop a little but the pace for both will be up, and otherwise they each excel where the other one is lacking. Selling De’Andre Hunter being a 12-team option. Maybe having two elite PGs will create enough open looks that he falls backwards into it, but as the fourth option on offense who needs to shoot above average to matter, I’m not expecting much even after a decent first week.
Brooklyn: Buying Royce O’Neale being a 12-team guy all year. He won’t be a middle-round guy but he’s going to play a lot and has never needed shots to get his value. It’s an easy call. Selling Ben Simmons, sort of. I don’t have issues with his fit here but I do think he was overdrafted given the decrease in his ball-handling responsibilities and shot attempts. He’s good enough elsewhere to still squeak into the top-100, but if you turn Simmons into an average producer of assists or a total non-scorer on any given night and you’ve got a guy who’s now punting 3.5 categories on average. That’s a hard way to go.
Boston: Buying Jayson Tatum finishing in the top-5. It’s time. Selling the PG timeshare. Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White are going to be splitting minutes all year and it wouldn’t shock me to see one must-start guy every week and the other two finish with late-round value or worse. It’s not a situation I want to put up with, even if there’s value.
Charlotte: Buying Nick Richards staying productive this year. It was surprising to see him win the backup job over lottery pick Mark Williams, but so far he’s proved that he earned it. He’s doing good stuff on the court, not just in the box score, and if the Hornets do make time for Williams later it’s going to be Mason Plumlee who suffers, not Richards. As for Gordon Hayward, I’m selling. He’s the type of steady, well-rounded contributor that I love, but he’s also getting some extra numbers in with Charlotte’s early injuries and I want off the carousel before he gets hurt. Whether or not you can get decent value back is another matter entirely, but I’d be trying.
Chicago: Buying a Patrick Williams bounce-back. I believe in the talent and the numbers he posted as a rookie showcase some decent fantasy upside. I’m not saying he’ll be a surefire 12-team option, but I think he’ll be way better than he has been so far and will at least take a run at it. Selling Ayo Dosunmu as a must-start guy. He’s certainly someone who needs to be rostered but the stat set isn’t great. He can score efficiently but won’t generate enough assists or defensive stats to cement himself as a guy you need to have in your lineup every single week.
Cleveland: Buying Dean Wade as a strong deep-league option. He’s what the Cavs thought they were getting when they drafted Dylan Windler. Wade doesn’t need a ton of shots but he can make his open ones, and he gives the team enough on that end to be a real option when he’s out there (looking at you, Isaac Okoro). Selling the big Evan Mobley breakout. Fully aware that he suffered a preseason ankle sprain and could make me look like a total idiot once he gets up to full speed, but the leap from last year into a true early-round guy is going to be very difficult for him to make on this roster. The Cavs aren’t going to ask or need him to excel at the areas that can truly take his fantasy numbers to the next level. We’ll see it every once in a while, but Mobley just won’t do it often enough to be a top-40 guy.
Dallas: Buying Dorian Finney-Smith while everyone else is dropping him. Patience is a virtue. Selling Spencer Dinwiddie outside of points leagues; the only time he really pops in the box score (when the Mavs are healthy) is when he’s hitting multiple 3-pointers, and that just can’t be the expectation given his track record. Too good to drop, not quite good enough to enjoy having on your roster. The sweet spot.
Denver: Big Bruce Brown fan; buying him becoming a top-125 guy this year. He’s an automatic start whenever someone is out and does enough across the box to grind out late-round value the rest of the time too. There’s a reason he ends up playing a key role for every team he’s on by the end of the year. Because I hate fun, I’m here to pump the brakes on the Bones Hyland breakout. It’s appealing and his fit with the team is obvious but in his role, Hyland’s going to have to hit his shots at a good clip in order to make the 12-team grade. His window of opportunity might shrink as Jamal Murray is ramping up, too.
Detroit: Buying Isaiah Stewart as a 3-point shooter. I’m ready to be hurt. Every year a bunch of centers talk about adding the 3-pointer to their game, but most end up doing the same old thing when the lights are bright. Stewart, however, has taken that to heart and has fired up at least four in every game so far this season. He’s only hit one in each game, so there’s still room to improve, but his willingness to shoot with confidence bodes well. He sees the way the winds are blowing and knows that he’ll probably have to find a way to play next to Jalen Duren eventually so good on Stewart for being proactive about it. Selling on Marvin Bagley, in case you forgot about him. He’s not better than Stewart, he’s not better than Duren and he’s not better than Bojan Bogdanovic. He’ll also be playing catch-up. Even if the Pistons force him in to make their contract look good, fantasy value isn’t there. Look elsewhere unless you’re in a 16-teamer.
Golden State: Buying Donte DiVincenzo (if he can get healthy again). The Warriors are going to mix and match their lineups to build in a little extra rest for their top guys, even if it’s not full-on days off, and DiVincenzo has the skills to fill in at either guard possession. While Jordan Poole is a quality ball-handler, his score-first ways might not be what the coaching staff wants to support the young players that make up the bulk of their second unit. I’m selling the Klay Thompson slow start. He’ll be fine, and perhaps this is him catching up after being held out of the preseason. Bold, I know.
Houston: Selling Alperen Sengun. The notion of drafting a second-year player who hadn’t proven he could handle a starting role in the middle-rounds (or early-middle rounds in some absurd cases) was never appealing. He was drafted to play at his peak from the jump despite some obvious concerns. It’d be surprising if Sengun wasn’t starting by the end of the year but you’re not supposed to expect ceiling-level numbers out of your picks, unless you like disappointment. Buying Jabari Smith — everything’s been there except for the shooting touch so far, and him playing center (another impediment for Sengun, by the way) is a fun wrinkle. Don’t panic.
Indiana: Huge buy on Jalen Smith, who predictably has looked a lot better since moving back to power forward. With all due respect to Terry Taylor, he’s got to be banished to the shadow realm (i.e. the bench) if it’s going to take Indiana’s better prospects out of the spots that are best for their development. A loose sell on Bennedict Mathurin. Don’t feel great about this call because he’s looked fantastic, but how will fantasy managers feel if he shoots worse from the floor? There’s also the angle of Mathurin potentially looking worse alongside the starters after an inevitable promotion, as he won’t always be the go-to guy on the floor. Not saying that he’ll be bad, but this does feel like peak form for Mathurin right now and expectations should be kept in check.
LA Clippers: Buying, and buying low, with Norm Powell. He’s just shooting poorly right now and it only takes one injury to you-know-who for Norm to become a top-70 guy. That he’s in the starting lineup at all is a minor miracle because the Clippers could’ve used his offense to prop up the second unit, but Powell will turn it around soon. Selling Marcus Morris. No thank you.
Los Angeles Lakers: Buying Patrick Beverley, who finished just outside the top-100 in the first week of the season despite an understated start. He could really hit the jets when the Lakers clear up the Russell Westbrook problem too. He might be getting dropped thanks to low points and triples but that’ll fix itself over time. Selling everyone on this roster not named LeBron, Patrick or Anthony. That includes Lonnie Walker IV, who is going to need to basically set a career-high in efficiency to make a real impact in fantasy. Not betting on that with how easily opponents can just charge at anyone who’s shooting well for the Lakers — it’s not like Walker can make a swing pass to a guy that he knows will hit an open 3-pointer.
Memphis: Buying John Konchar, even when the Grizzlies get healthy. Go look up his college stats, then go look up his G League stats, and then take a spin through his game logs. This is what he does. He’s probably going to get dropped at the first sign of trouble (Dillon Brooks’ return sure counts) but the Grizz traded De’Anthony Melton and signed Konchar to an extension, so he’s going to play a part in filling those 20 mpg (beyond what he would’ve gotten normally). I’m not quite selling Santi Aldama’s hot start, but I’m not sold just yet. He’s going to have to adjust when defenses pay him a little more attention, and that’s when Brandon Clarke might be able to strike. Aldama’s good enough to be universally rostered for now but there’s going to be bumps in the road.
Miami: Buying Caleb Martin, big time. He’s the closest thing Miami has to a power forward and has a nice little stat set working for him. If he’s available in 12-team leagues, go get him. Selling Bam Adebayo returning to early-round value. As much as we all like to get our jokes off about Kyle Lowry, he’s still a positive on-court player and will take away most of Bam’s assists upside. Add in the expectation of additional shot volume — which means lower efficiency, more free throws (probably bad news) and the likelihood of a little less effort expended on defense — and it’s tough to see how enough things break right for a big bounce back.
Milwaukee: Buying the Bucks. Everything. Beautiful, perfect, no notes. The good guys are good, Grayson Allen is a respectable stream. Selling Wes Matthews over Jordan Nwora. Turns out there was one note.
Minnesota: Big buy on Jaylen Nowell. He was better than Malik Beasley last year and the Wolves are very thin on the wing. If you need scoring pop, he’s near the top of your add list. A regrettable sell on Karl-Anthony Towns at PF. He’s shown a little more playmaking instinct at his new position and things could very well normalize as things progress and Rudy Gobert settles in, but the drag on his efficiency and scoring potential hurts too much. A top-20 season should be in the cards but it’s not going to be as much fun as it’s been in the past.
New Orleans: Buying Jose Alvarado right now while the price is low. A big Tuesday showing will elevate his stock but people will cool down again when he goes back to the bench, and this is really a bet on his quality shining over time. His defense is too valuable for the Pels to shuffle into the background forever. A soft sell on Jonas Valanciunas. He’s an automatic fantasy play who can still be a key part of a very good fantasy roster, to be clear, but it feels like New Orleans will be able to work around him when they need to because of some excellent depth. JV doesn’t have to stay on the floor when things aren’t working like he has in the past.
New York: As you could’ve guessed from up top, I’m buying all the Isaiah Hartenstein I can. I suppose that means I’m naturally selling Mitchell Robinson because that’s a zero-sum game. He’s a fine blocks specialist but if he couldn’t hold off Nerlens Noel in the past, what’s he going to do as Hartenstein stacks up good tape? Add in the injury risk and I think it’ll be a bumpy ride.
Oklahoma City: Doing the temporary buy on Mike Muscala in deep leagues, a long-time personal favorite since he was with the Hawks. A guy who can deliver rebounds, threes and blocks on good percentages in a flash? Sign me up. It’s only a matter of time before he gets DNPd into submission but that shouldn’t be for a few months. Selling the rest of the OKC frontcourt right now. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Kenrich Williams and Aleksej Pokusevski are trading off low-end games. JRE has the best floor as the most frequent starter but hitting on one out of every three games is immensely annoying.
Orlando: It’s 2022 and I am here, buying into Terrence Ross. There’s a lot of motivation for him to play well and the team to keep him in positions to play well; both want Ross to be traded, and the Magic would prefer a decent return if possible. Injuries mean he’s locked into the bulk of the SG minutes so let’s ride this one until the wave crashes. Long-term, I’m selling the point guards here. Cole Anthony is fine with all the other injuries but when this becomes a timeshare you’re looking at guys who don’t have the stat set to be more than late-round players more often than not.
Philadelphia: Still buying De’Anthony Melton. I know, I know. Selling Montrezl Harrell. Doc Rivers is trying to make it work but Paul Reed is just better.
Phoenix: Buying Jock Landale as the backup center. He can shoot just enough to give the team a different dynamic when he’s on the floor, whereas guys like Bismack Biyombo, Ish Wainright and Dario Saric can more or less do a cheap imitation of various aspects of Deandre Ayton’s game. Not much to sell here — everything’s going as expected besides a slow start for Cam Johnson.
Portland: Buying Anfernee Simons, especially after his slow start. The usage is there, the role is there, he’ll come around soon. Selling Portland’s great start to the year. The team did a lot to address some holes over the offseason but we’ll see what happens when the rest of the West is back in shape and/or they hit a little adversity. Seeing the Blazers return to the postseason would not be shocking, but seeing them end up in the Play-In scene wouldn’t be shocking either.
Sacramento: Buying Mike Brown’s commitment to defense. The Kings badly need an overhaul and Brown’s willingness to reward defense is critical in setting the tone. His decision to play Davion Mitchell 15 minutes straight the other night shows that he’ll walk the walk, too. Fantasy-wise, that means the rotation will condense to include only those guys who meet the standard. It’ll take a bit to figure out but everyone will know where they stand. On the other hand, we’re selling KZ Okpala as a starter. What a waste of everyone’s time.
San Antonio: Buying into the Spurs being actually kinda fun this season. Deep down it must warm Gregg Popovich’s heart to lead a ragtag gang of youngsters against a variety of superteams and powerhouses. Selling the Spurs tanking for Victor Wembanyama. This team is just a little too good and a little too well-coached to really bottom out, but maybe they get lucky and win the lottery anyway. On the plus side, hopefully it limits the amount of shutdowns we see.
Toronto: Buying everything about Pascal Siakam’s start. His bag of moves is getting deeper every year and he’s taken it upon himself to create for his teammates. The problem used to be that Siakam couldn’t do much when his spin move got shut down, now defenses have a hard time figuring out what’s coming. Siakam has countered the counters. I’m selling Thad Young’s lack of involvement so far. He’s a smart defender and a reasonable enough passer to keep things moving, which you think would be valuable on a team that can really struggle to score. Not sure what that holdup is about.
Utah: Buying Mike Conley being a real difference-maker. Everyone panicked about the Jazz rebuild but it’s an organization that doesn’t necessarily want to just watch losses stack up as their young guys learn bad habits. Conley’s going to be a solid option until the trade or shutdown comes, and he’s going to end up being a good value. Selling the whole Sexton situation. He probably only got drafted by the optimists anyway; he might get where you want him to go but it’s going to take longer than you think.
Washington: Buying the PG timeshare, against all odds. Monte Morris and Delon Wright can both be top-150 guys in 20 mpg; if they can both settle around 25 then both are pretty solid options for low-end guard play, with the benefit of having pretty dissimilar skill sets so there’s not a ton of overlap. Selling Will Barton, also against all odds. The Wiz need a sixth man but he’s not going to get enough usage or playing time to be the top-100 guy he was last year. You’ll see some nice box scores every now and then but it’s going to take an injury to capture my attention, personally.
Deep-League Darts
As the guy who writes all the Draft Guide player profiles — even for the players you’ve never heard of and won’t care about — I will always have a soft spot for the scrubs and randoms. Besides, we all know that the good players are good. Give me a chance to talk Usman Garuba over LeBron James any day so we can actually cover new ground. Some of you are equally as insane and play in 30-team leagues, where your best free agent could be Tony Bradley, so I’ll dedicate a space to talk about the intriguing names who are worth monitoring in deeper leagues.
For the 16-team crowd, take a look at Justise Winslow. The Blazers are running a pretty tight rotation with no clear backup PG, and Winslow’s ball-handling and versatility makes him a strong guy to fill a couple different roles. He’s not being overtaxed and still getting minutes in a role that leverages his strengths as a player. Rebounds and defensive stats are going to roll in with 25 mpg, and you’ll get points and assists every so often too.
If you’re in a 20-teamer, maybe Troy Brown Jr. will float your boat. It was a while back, but not forever ago that he was a decent little sleeper as a multi-cat contributor for the Wizards. He’s still only 23 and now has the benefit of being on a roster that is starving for literally anyone to step up. If he can shoot the 3-ball, he’ll get a ton of minutes and the Lakers have already given him the lion’s share of playing time among second-unit forwards.
For the 30-team leagues, it’s gotta be my guy Muscala. Love the stat set and he’s actually playing (for now).
Final Thoughts
When I draft, I try to be flexible. I’d rather not punt but if I have to I will. There’s only one tenet that I take into the draft room: No Bad Players.
I promise you, the potential fantasy stud that you have who isn’t playing a lot is not the victim of a conspiracy. Odds are he’s not playing a lot because he’s not playing well. Rick Carlisle doesn’t hate Isaiah Jackson. Nick Nurse didn’t hate Chris Boucher. Taylor Jenkins may have hated De’Anthony Melton, but that’s besides the point.
At the end of the year you’ll notice that the fantasy rankings are generally filled with guys that are actually good, because they’re the ones that actually get to play. Taking a guy who’s bad at winning NBA games and expecting good stats is not going to work out. The cream will rise to the top, Macho Man style, oooh yeah, so you might just have to be a little patient.
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