Weekly Report: The Turnaround

So much ink has been spilled on Ben Simmons over the last year. He hasn’t done himself any real favors with his public persona but the piling on, while not entirely without merit, heated up again after it was leaked last week that some within the Nets organization are questioning his will to compete. Maybe that was some selective public motivation, because Simmons has hit the gas pedal over his last few games, looking like the dynamic two-way threat that can serve as the floor-raiser for Brooklyn’s stars.

The key for Simmons has been that he’s actually looking at the basket with the ball in his hands, and when that happens teammates are more willing to put the ball in his hands knowing that the offense won’t grind to a halt. He seems very much prone to riding the ebbs and flows; when things are bad they snowball, and when Simmons builds up a little positive momentum he can really find that next gear.

Now, as for what that means to fantasy GMs. Simmons, for all the gains, was outside the top-80 last week. It’s a vast improvement over his full-season numbers but still not quite that solid middle-round output in the sense that things can go sour again pretty quickly. To wit, it’s apparent that Brooklyn’s defensive effort has sagged in their last two games after building up some goodwill in previous contests. It’s as if a star-level player who emits nothing but bad vibes returned for the last pair of games! This feels like a sell-high opportunity for a player who, despite his obvious upside, still has plenty of questions to answer over the course of the year. Until the Nets can show that their starting lineup actually works together you’re not going to see anything close to peak Simmons.

Still, full marks to Simmons for picking up the slack lately, and bonus points for embracing the heel role in Philadelphia. Games are more fun with a clear villain.

Good Surprise

There are plenty of choices here; Harrison Barnes and John Konchar at Nos. 16 and 17 are your technical winners, though as president of the Konchar fan club I am personally not stunned. Aleksej Pokusevski rode nine blocks to another top-30 finish and shooting reasonably has turned him into a must-start guy. A little further down you’ve got Bones Hyland at No. 35 — a player performing amid COVID absences is nothing new but that’s a sterling effort from a guy with a shaky stat set. Thad Young and Dalano Banton finished Nos. 36 and 38, filling in for a Raptors team that’s losing guys left and right.

All of those players besides Poku have pretty obvious circumstances leading to excess value, with Barnes simply shooting well and waking up after a horrible start to the season and everyone else filling in for key players. Instead we’ll focus on an injury fill-in whose path to fantasy appeal is a little less obvious, No. 43 Torrey Craig.

Craig, like some of those other guys, is filling in for a missing starter in the form of Cam Johnson. While that’s obviously a big pair of shoes to fill, Johnson isn’t a cornerstone of the Suns in the same way that Nikola Jokic/Jamal Murray, Pascal Siakam/Fred VanVleet and Desmond Bane are. Moreover, Craig isn’t getting the job done by absorbing a ton of extra shots, though his double-digit scoring has been huge. In the past his per-minute output has never been all that outstanding but Craig is cooking up well-rounded numbers and certainly deserves a roster spot until he reverts to his typical form.

Bad Surprise

Last week we had a fairly respectable showing from the universally rostered, with none falling outside the top-300. Not the case last week, as Giannis Antetokounmpo slotted in at No. 383 out of 383 in his three games. While he averaged 22.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, Antetokounmpo only picked up three defensive stats all week and shot .393 from the field on over 20 shots a night and .432 at the free throw line on over 14 attempts per game at the stripe. Add in one busted ladder and you’ve got a nightmarish week for Giannis’ fantasy GMs. Even if you punted free throws, Antetokounmpo only rose up to No. 148. The volume of his attempts meant that his free throw weight was nearly twice as bad as Steven Adams’, who shot .071 on his freebies last week.

You won’t ever see Giannis come in dead last again so… cherish it? Or don’t, if you lost last week.

One low-key bad surprise? Josh Richardson finishing outside the top-200 in his five-game week, even with the Spurs missing one of their top dogs more often than not. At least the volume was there.

No Surprise

De’Anthony Melton finishing at No. 67 shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention at any point over the last three seasons. It takes about 22 mpg for him to be a top-130 guy, so over 36 minutes in two games is more than enough to guarantee must-start numbers. Usually we highlight guys who play more games than this but Melton needs his own shoutout here.

As for the guys who actually got in more games, we have Tyrese Haliburton at No. 5 — he’s always been very good and you shouldn’t have bristled at his ADP — and Bojan Bogdanovic, who was outside the top-160 despite scoring 21.3 points per game on .526 shooting. When you don’t contribute anywhere else it’s hard to make big waves as a fantasy value unless you’re truly elite as a scorer or FG% booster. Bogdanovic, while good at both, is simply not elite in either department. He fits plenty of teams but hopefully you sold high early on.

30 Thoughts

In the spirit of the theme, most of the thoughts this week will be focused on players who are either on the upswing or those who should be able to improve as fantasy options over the course of the season.

Atlanta: Last week we talked about a talented Hawks rookie: “AJ Griffin looks to have supplanted Justin Holiday in the rotation. Not surprising that the team’s best 3-point shooter is climbing the ladder. Deep leagues only for the time being but the thought of a knockdown shooter getting to stand in the corner and play off some All-Star guards sure is appealing.”

Griffin ended up playing a huge part in the team’s OT win over the Raptors and stepped into the starting lineup for the sick De’Andre Hunter. Always feels good to get ahead of the curve, even if it’s only by a few days. Griffin also established himself as more interesting fantasy player than Hunter, too.

Brooklyn: Feels like we’ve got a zero-sum game going between Joe Harris and Seth Curry when the Nets are healthy. Both players are too important to the Nets to flail about forever, and although neither is likely to reward 12-team managers every single week, Harris and Curry should at least have stretches of startability. With Ben Simmons now playing well, that leaves two Brooklyn starters as total non-shooters, so spacing will be at a premium.

Boston: Last week, we said: “A little disappointing that Derrick White couldn’t take off, even with Malcolm Brogdon’s hamstring injury. He ended up averaging 21.8 mpg and was startable as a top-110 guy, but it would’ve been fun to see him go right back to the old top-60 stuff.”

White made up for lost time, finishing at No. 4 thanks to 19.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 3.3 triples while shooting .625 from the field and hitting all of his free throws. That’s not likely to carry over with the Celtics’ backcourt guys back, but the revelation that Marcus Smart will likely need days off throughout the season should keep White on the 12-team radar all year long.

Charlotte: PJ Washington sitting at just top-125 levels feels like a cruel joke with all the things that have aligned in his favor. A lot of it can be traced to a dip in efficiency, and he’s going to end the year inside the top-90. Calling it now.

Chicago: Alex Caruso is operating as a steals specialist right now but as the Bulls continue to get lost in the muck of the playoff race, they’re going to have to dial it up for their best players. That means Caruso and his defense will be needed more and more. If he’s available, look his way, because there’s top-100 value in there if he can heat up.

Cleveland: Jarrett Allen is a top-45 player while posting a career-low FG%. That’s going up and if you can buy low now, it’s the recommended course of action. He’s an effortless fantasy producer which means his GMs may not know exactly what they have.

Dallas: The Mavs becoming a bit of a fantasy wasteland is a real shame — and yes, that’s including the inevitable fall-off for Spencer Dinwiddie. Dorian Finney-Smith remains a strong bet for fantasy value even after his slow start to the year. Most of his decline can be traced to a dip in 3-point shooting, and we’d bet that he starts to convert on more of his good looks as the season rolls on. He’s just a top-180 guy so far but it’s a quick ramp considering how stable his role is.

Denver: Shoutout to Aaron Gordon, who will never be the top-75 guy it looked like he could be as a hyperathletic youngster in the Magic, but has settled into a nice role for Denver. He’s a versatile defender who can feast on cuts and even knock down the open corner jumper when called upon, making him a fantastic fit for the Nuggets. The temptation with guys like Gordon has always been finding out what his ceiling is all over the court with his considerable skills, at the risk of piling too much on his plate. Gordon, in a slimmed-down role, is a far more effective player in both fantasy and reality.

Detroit: It sure looks like Alec Burks is already in the circle of trust, and there’s no denying that his ability to create and make his own shots is a massive element for the Pistons. He’s just outside the top-130 right now but should continue to climb up the board. He won’t be an automatic 15-plus points every night but as he continues to play the other numbers will start to rise.

Golden State: Unfortunately, the Warriors being so clearly top-heavy and well-defined means we’re probably not going to see any big changes, unless Jordan Poole wants to start playing up to his contract. Their bench has been a colossal disappointment, with Donte DiVincenzo in particular looking out of sorts. His skills are a good on-paper fit for the Dubs so it wouldn’t be surprising if he rounded into form, though likely not enough to matter outside of 16-team leagues.

Houston: Tari Eason is inside the top-120 in just 18.7 mpg. He’s a menace out there and should not be on waivers in any competitive leagues. The Rockets are loaded with young guys but will still subtract every-night players by the trade deadline, and if this is what Eason’s cooking up while you sit in the waiting room he’ll be well worth some occasional duds.

Indiana: Keep holding Isaiah Jackson. It sucks to watch him flounder but the rebounds and blocks are there; if you punt FT% then Jackson is already close to being a 12-team value. The big run is coming and some manager with more patience than you is going to reap all the rewards if you cut bait now.

LA Clippers: Super fun and cool that the Clippers just lose their stars at random times (and this is not a complaint about load management). We’ve said all along that Norman Powell is only one injury away from being a top-70 guy again, and now he’s got two to work with. If the stars align and he can shoot better while one of the big guns is out, you’re cooking with gas.

Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers have to find more minutes for Austin Reaves. We’re going to re-use that thought over and over but it’s striking how much better he is than his counterparts whenever the Lakers are shoved upon us on national broadcasts. The fantasy stat set is up for debate but if Reaves can serve as connective tissue for the team’s clunkier fits, he’ll have to stay on the floor and should collect at least deep-league value.

Memphis: So far it’s been Brandon Clarke generally getting more run off the bench than Santi Aldama, which isn’t much of a surprise. Aldama next to Jaren Jackson doesn’t provide too much, whereas Clarke fills a clear matchup need. It’s looking like everything will have to go right for Clarke to be a 12-team guy but weirdly, he should be better with JJJ back.

Miami: Duncan Robinson is an afterthought these days and continues to float around in trade rumors as a pure salary dump, but he’s someone to consider in the right landing spot. A pure shooter who fills a narrow lane, Robinson hasn’t been an elite marksman in a couple years now. Of course, it’s hard to get that touch back when you’re no longer an every-night player. Should he get traded — hopefully to a team that needs his shooting — there’s some bounce-back potential, even if Robinson never becomes a top-100 option again.

Milwaukee: Pat Connaughton is an intriguing guy to monitor in 16-team leagues and he should quickly establish himself as Milwaukee’s go-to wing off the bench. We’d like to see him start over Grayson Allen, who has been in trade rumors lately, but inertia figures to win out unless a transaction drops. Connaughton can shoot, defend and just play hard so there’s some upside in rebounds, triples, steals and blocks.

Minnesota: It’s two steps forward and one step back for D’Angelo Russell and the Wolves overall, but they’ve been getting pretty consistent play out of Jaden McDaniels. Already a top-90 value, maybe a rising tide will float McDaniels’ boat even higher as Minnesota starts to play better.

New Orleans: The Pelicans need more Jose Alvarado, and so do we all. He’s just outside the top-175 so far and that’s with 0.9 steals per game, so you know he can leapfrog a bunch of players once he gets on a roll with his pickpocketry. Alvarado is simply a winning player and will end up averaging far more than the 19.2 mpg he’s gotten so far.

New York: Isaiah Hartenstein has been battling an Achilles issue all season, which really explains a lot — everything except why he played 40 minutes on opening night, anyway. He remains a hold. In the same vein as Isaiah Jackson, the rewards are too great to miss and you can probably get Hartenstein for cheap, if not completely free, while Tom Thibodeau fiddles with the rotation. It’s been very annoying but Hartenstein is about as strong a stash as you can find. Also, for all the complaining, he’s still right outside the top-100.

Oklahoma City: The Thunder are unpredictable on a night-to-night basis so you’re really taking some risks with anyone not named Shai or Aleksej or Josh right now. Down the line, Jaylin Williams looks like a compelling fantasy player in an OKC frontcourt that’s really missing a true rim protecting center, with all due respect to Darius Bazley. If OKC can find a reason to give Mike Muscala semi-regular playing time right now, you can imagine what the team is capable of when it comes to clearing the deck for a real prospect.

Orlando: The emergence of Bol Bol has thrown a wrench into things and the Magic don’t necessarily have the personnel that demands a conventional lineup, but Gary Harris fills a big void on the squad. He’s been far more miss than hit in recent years but last season was a big bounce back, and if he can return to that level you’ve got a pretty steady 3-and-D guy for just about all leagues. That he played 24 minutes in his season debut is a strong start considering he was coming back from a torn meniscus. If that’s the floor, we should see what Harris’ regular workload looks like shortly.

Philadelphia: A stunning reveal* that Paul Reed is vastly superior than Montrezl Harrell.

*The least surprising thing in the world

Phoenix: Damion Lee has been terrific of late and may hold onto his role when Landry Shamet (concussion) returns to action. It’s not a situation that will impact many leagues but that’s a testament to how tightly the Suns are run. You basically have the starters, their immediate fill-ins and that’s it.

Portland: Shaedon Sharpe has shown an incredible amount of polish for a guy who didn’t play any college/pro hoops after high school. That’s only one year, but it’s still impressive to see how he has been able to jump right into the action as a serviceable starter and occasionally explosive scorer. We’ll see what he can cook up over the next few games with Damian Lillard (calf) out again.

Sacramento: Buying low on Keegan Murray’s shooting slump is an extremely easy call, but who doesn’t like free money?

San Antonio: After a strong start for Keldon Johnson he’s morphed back into the overrated guy we were worried about last year; he’s an efficiency drag with limited defensive stats. His acquisition cost in drafts will make it hard to buy low, as will the fact that he’s still doing enough with points, rebounds and 3-pointers to trick less-informed managers into thinking that he’s been a great value. Johnson will get better so see what it costs to get him right now.

Toronto: Last week-ception here: “Last week I intimated that Toronto’s injuries could have the silver lining of forcing the team to elevate guys into real roles that will either provide the Raptors usable intel or inspire those players into better play. Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa and Otto Porter were all promptly injured. I apologize profusely. This, in turn, will lead to enough returns to halt the momentum of Dalano Banton, who set career-highs in scoring in two straight games. I cannot win.”

Dalano Banton suffered a left ankle sprain almost immediately.

Utah: Jarred Vanderbilt hasn’t done a lot to impress this season but has still cranked out top-120 value. He’s just grinding it out right now and if this is what comes from the dog days of his season, better things will be in store. While the Jazz keep winning, they will likely make some deadline moves that clear the deck a bit. We’re a long way from that part of the calendar but Vanderbilt’s natural improvement will do the bulk of the heavy lifting.

Washington: Deni Avdija is cooking now and looks like a multi-cat option worthy of a spot in 12-team leagues. Consistency will remain an issue because Washington has enough forward depth to pivot if someone else has the hot hand, but Avdija complements just about everyone else. It’s a good path to value, in that he has multiple paths to value.

Deep League Darts

How’d we do last week? For 16-teamers, we endorsed Nic Batum, who ended up as a minor victory despite posting some very uninteresting games on the way to a No. 188 finish. For 18-teamers, we called out Dwight Powell, who ended up outside the top-300 as the Mavs got healthy. Identifying Wenyen Gabriel proved fruitful for managers, however, as he ended up inside the top-150.

As for this week…

Oshae Brissett inched up towards 20 mpg last week and it wasn’t necessarily the result of a ton of injuries. We saw what he could do last season and if the playing time holds, he should compile enough numbers to get near the top-200.

In 18-team leagues, Danuel House looks like he’s getting good run as a fill-in on the wings, even if he’s not anyone’s direct replacement. Give him a shot for 3-and-D numbers.

With Richaun Holmes completely toast, Chimezie Metu is earning himself minutes as a primary bench big in Sacramento. He plays hard and can knock down the occasional 3-pointer, which is enough to keep him on the floor to the extent that he’s worth a look in 20-team formats.

Even deeper than that and you can kick the tires on Zeke Nnaji. Jeff Green is out for a bit and there’s going to be regular playing time available for Nnaji in the second unit.

Final Thoughts

Mikal Bridges rules. He’s a second-round value with nothing he’s doing looking unsustainably high. No matter who’s in or out of the lineup around him, Bridges has his fingerprints all over every Suns victory and he’s carrying fantasy GMs right now too.

*Originally published November 23, 2022