Weekly Report: Wish List
We here at SportsEthos are hoping that you and your families are having wonderful holiday seasons. Put your feet up for a quick read and then get back to the break!
This week we’re taking a different approach, as last week’s wonky schedule won’t give us a ton of insight to get at. Instead we’ll take a big-picture view, with this a good point in the calendar to take a snapshot of everything. We’re still several weeks away from the trade deadline and then the fantasy playoff push, and the NBA builds in a little bit of a schedule reset for everyone to catch their breaths.
Good Surprise
With all due respect to Donovan Mitchell, currently at No. 10 in the 9-cat rankings, this can’t go to anyone but Brook Lopez, who is sitting pretty at No. 17.
You always had a feeling that Mitchell had the potential to be really, really good, but who knew that Lopez could be really, really good again? With 2.1 triples and 2.6 blocks per game on .503 shooting, Lopez has been visited by the ghosts of Christmas past and revived his status as a fantasy stud. Even if he cools way off after the holidays, you’re still going to end up with a massive draft day profit.
Among other positives are Nic Claxton (No. 40), Bol Bol (No. 67), Aaron Gordon (No. 68) and Kelly Oubre (No. 76). Some careful drafting in the late-middle rounds can have you lapping the field.
Bad Surprise
Most of the majority-rostered players around the league are within shouting distance of 12-team value, and most of those that aren’t have valid reasons for being a little bit further down the rankings than expected.
John Wall outside the top-300 may qualify, though we were never all that interested him in standard leagues to begin with — even if he should be better than this, no doubt.
This would be Khris Middleton’s spot (No. 265) but it’s the Christmas season and we’re feeling kind — we’re not going to lay into a guy for shooting poorly after returning from wrist surgery.
We may have to settle on Collin Sexton, who is outside the top-200. The Jazz have been too good to tank and just hand Sexton the keys, so he’s been tussling with Malik Beasley for minutes behind Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. There were plenty of reasons to be skeptical even if Sexton was playing a ton, but he’s been way below expectation for even the most pessimistic managers.
We’ve got some guys who have been annoying but technically still valuable — Jonas Valanciunas at No. 126, Jamal Murray at No. 128, Klay Thompson at No. 112 — that are probably worse surprises, all things considered. At least you can drop Sexton and not lose sleep over it.
No Surprise
Which guys are tracking right where we thought they were? Many! But it’s all about perspective. With that in mind…
De’Anthony Melton at No. 45 is great to see. Obviously he’s benefited from some things out of his own control but we’ve always known what kind of producer he can be when the opportunity is there. He’s finally getting that and managers who stayed the course are crushing it.
On the flip side, Evan Mobley at No. 63 isn’t bad, but it’s also not close to what managers were hoping to see. He’s not the only second-year player struggling to meet last season’s hype — Scottie Barnes is at No. 109 and Cade Cunningham is already off the entire board — but Mobley didn’t show quite enough as a scoring threat for us to buy a big jump this year. It’s one thing to miss a lot of shots as a rookie (a la Jalen Green), but it’s a ceiling-capper when you only take certain kinds of shots and aren’t tasked with creating your own. There are only so many rebounds and blocks available, and until Mobley puts up more points it’s going to be difficult for him to become an early-round guy. He’s what you should’ve expected, but it’s still a little dispiriting.
30 Gifts
In the spirit of the holidays, we’re going to submit our wish list to see what each team could be unwrapping in a perfect world — or at least what gifts fantasy managers might be hoping for from each squad.
Atlanta: What do the Hawks need more than anything? Two really good weeks where they win a bunch of games and everything quiets down. As for what fantasy GMs could get from Atlanta? It doesn’t look like much is on the board, but the long-awaited Onyeka Okongwu breakout would be great. It’s a credit to Clint Capela’s resurgent season that it hasn’t happened yet.
Brooklyn: Nothing. The Nets are rolling and look like they’re supposed to. Fantasy-wise, Nic Claxton hitting even one more out of every 10 free throws would be incredible. That’s not too much to ask, is it?
Boston: Real GM and fantasy GM are aligned here — a quick ramp-up for Robert Williams.
Charlotte: The Hornets continue to draft guys and then not play them, so we’d love a pivot to seeing some Mark Williams.
Chicago: Lonzo Ball returning would be a Christmas miracle at this point, but wouldn’t it be grand? He’s clearly the straw that stirs the drink in Chicago, and the team has been stumbling about despite its talent without someone to organize the offense and set the tone on D.
Cleveland: It sure would put us in a festive mood if Evan Mobley could take the leap as an offensive threat. The Cavs are constructed in a way that they don’t need him to be a 20-point guy, but you know he has that in him.
Dallas: Some help for Luka. The Mavs box scores are as cut-and-dry as any team in the league, and while that may make life easier for fantasy managers, it’s probably not great for team success, or at least for making sure that Doncic doesn’t get worn down.
Denver: With the Nuggets’ starting lineup completely healthy again, we’re hoping that there’s still enough on the table for Bruce Brown to stay around the top-100. Please, Santa.
Detroit: Continued growth for Killian Hayes. Cade Cunningham’s absence is a major blow to the Pistons in terms of getting their guys developmental reps together, but the ability to dial things up for Hayes to really see what he can do should be invaluable as well.
Golden State: A speedy recovery for Steph Curry — or at least a good run of peak Donte DiVincenzo.
Houston: Better shooting from Jabari Smith Jr. He’s got all the tools anyone could want but his efficiency hasn’t carried over from college. The Rockets are a little helter skelter because of their personnel and coaching, but if Smith can start scoring relatively efficiently it’ll completely change things for everyone. Is he a high-level 3-and-D guy who needs his table set, or is Smith the kind of two-way force that can create his own unblockable shot? Houston’s trajectory changes significantly if it’s the latter.
Indiana: Some Myles Turner clarity. His one-foot-out saga hasn’t been great for the Pacers, who likely would’ve traded him in the last few years if not for his injury issues. They’ve got two young bigs itching to go once Turner moves, which is what fantasy managers are waiting for. They can’t possibly be trying to run this back, can they?
LA Clippers: Good health for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This team is a legitimate Finals threat when healthy.
Los Angeles Lakers: That Darvin Ham gets a visit from the ghost of Christmas Future and gets frightened into giving Austin Reaves all kinds of playing time. He’s a top-140 player on the full year and that’s with a lot of obstacles. His .522 from the field doesn’t feel entirely sustainable but so few Lakers consistently impact winning like Reaves.
Memphis: Nothing, really. Just keep it going. Jaren Jackson Jr. is back and looking good, Desmond Bane has returned… things are going well here. How does one buy a gift for someone who has no needs?
Miami: Harsher punishment from the league for crappy injury reporting practices.
Milwaukee: The best gift Milwaukee could get is Khris Middleton’s knee issues being sorted out quickly. There’s no timeline and the Bucks aren’t saying anything about what the problem actually is, but without Middleton they have no chance at winning another title.
Minnesota: The Wolves might have to wait a couple months for their real gift but they badly, badly, badly need a real point guard. This roster is aching for someone who can connect all the dots, and getting a guy like that will be a rising tide that lifts all boats.
New Orleans: Continued health and improvement for Zion Williamson. He’s grabbing more defensive stats and hitting more free throws, and though he can hit droughts too, we’re starting to see Zion post top-10 value for weeks at a time. He’s still got so much development to go.
New York: The Knicks have recently ripped off a big win streak that might get Tom Thibodeau to even crack a smile. That’s the most heart-warming gift of all. (We’d like to see Isaiah Hartenstein get more minutes but we’re chasing miracles, not impossibilities.)
Oklahoma City: It would be just dandy if Mark Daigneault could stop yanking Aleksej Pokusevski’s minutes around. Of course, that’s a two-way street, and Poku can guarantee that with his own play, but letting him play through more mistakes given how well he’s played at times makes more sense than it has in years past.
Orlando: Fantasy managers have been able to dodge bullets like Neo in the backcourt here since someone’s always hurt, but that won’t (read: shouldn’t) last forever. The best outcome is Jalen Suggs returning shortly so we can see how the minutes get carved up between Suggs, Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony. You might lose a fantasy player as a result but at least you’ll figure it out now and not in March or whenever the gang is all together.
Philadelphia: The Sixers are a tight ship in terms of fantasy value; from an entertainment standpoint I’d like to see PJ Tucker actively turn down open shots to see how long he can go without scoring.
Phoenix: A sneaky good gift would be to resolve the Jae Crowder situation as fast as possible. We’re at the point where the holdout is damaging Crowder’s own trade value — teams rightfully can’t believe that Jae Crowder has this kind of pull — and getting something back would be better than whatever this is.
Portland: In a perfect world, the Blazers would go get another athletic wing/forward on the trade market. One more guy like that and it’ll make Portland a serious postseason threat.
Sacramento: The greatest gift of all would be some clean results from Domantas Sabonis’ hand exams. The feel-good story of the league so far, it would suck if the Kings fell off due to injury. It’s one thing to cool off or have other teams just beat you, but a freak hand injury would be an awful second act of their tale.
San Antonio: Jeremy Sochan continuing to round out his offensive game will pay dividends for all parties. You might need to deal with some rotten percentages along the way but the building blocks are here for him to be a pretty solid fantasy player.
Toronto: The Raptors haven’t exactly been crushed by injuries, but they haven’t had the best luck… the defense has been fine at times and non-existent at others… things are just a little bit off. A vibe correction would be the easiest gift, if also the one with the least obvious solution. A real rim protector would also be great, but Santa’s going to have to wait for Masai Ujiri to finish his work in the shadows before dropping that gift under the tree.
Utah: The Jazz don’t seem like the type to get high on their own supply, but hopefully Danny Ainge can spin them some other gems on the trade market (while being involved but not closing out some others). They’re on the way up, and despite the positive feelings all around Salt Lake City, they have to be aware that this team isn’t winning in the playoffs as currently constructed. If the Jazz can get some futures back for non-essential players on the roster, it’ll be a quick rebuild that wasn’t painful at all.
Washington: On the flip side, this is a team that needs blowing up. Sorry to end on a sour note but the Wizards should maximize the value of their best players and see what they can get. Kyle Kuzma isn’t going to be on the team by the time the Wizards are a real playoff threat. Fantasy managers would love the annual tank-related sprint to the wire to add guys like Jordan Goodwin and Daniel Gafford — who doesn’t like free money?
Deep League Darts
We’re going to take a long-term view with this one, and try to offer up some gifts that will last you a while and not just end up in the junk drawer.
If you’re in a 16-team league, Gary Harris is worth a long look. The ascension of Bol Bol has changed a lot — it’s basically ruined Mo Bamba and taken a starting lineup spot away — but Harris provides skills that nobody else on the roster can. He started last year and as long as he can be average-or-better from the field, he shouldn’t have issues posting top-175 value once he’s up to speed.
In 18-team leagues, Luke Kennard makes a little bit of sense. His rocky first year with the Clippers is well in the rear-view and he looks like he’ll hold down a regular spot. The volume proposition is dicey so he’ll need to hit his shots at a good clip, but Kennard offers a different dimension than the team’s other ball-handlers in that he can shoot and is also not looking for his own shot all the time. Gotta get in where you fit in.
In deeper leagues, it’s time to take a look at Reggie Bullock again. The ramp up can get him into the top-150 and though it’s a horribly boring journey, some time with Dorian Finney-Smith on the sidelines could be the thing to get him going.
Final Thoughts
Merry Christmas, happy holidays, whatever you’re celebrating, hope it’s a good one.
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