2022 NBA Draft: Big School, Small Minutes
Evaluating prospects and projecting them for fantasy purposes can be a complicated process. There are hundreds of potential NBA newcomers every year and it’s impossible to become deeply familiar with every single one. There’s a temptation to just look at a player’s box scores and extrapolate out, give or take some wiggle room as the competition gets harder. That’s fine to establish a baseline for what a player is capable of contributing, but those numbers can be misleading, especially at larger schools. Roles and playing time aren’t necessarily a meritocracy in the NCAA ranks, as sometimes a player won’t fit a scheme or will need to spend more time on the bench to allow an upperclassman to play more. That’s especially true for power programs, where stacked rosters might prevent a young player’s true talent from shining on the court.
College numbers can be inflated when a player is a star on a team that doesn’t have other top dogs, or when they’re being handed 35 minutes per contest. We’re going to look at some guys whose numbers might not pop right off the page, but who showed enough per-minute promise to be interesting. Scottie Barnes and Isaiah Jackson made the list last year, so hopefully we can find similar success stories.
Tari Eason, F, LSU
Stats: 24.4 mpg, 16.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.1 blocks, 0.8 3-pointers on .521 / .359 / .803 shooting splits (FG / 3P / FT)
This is about as good as it gets for fantasy managers. Eason started in just four of his 33 appearances for the Tigers last season and looks like a versatile forward who is just waiting to be unleashed in a larger role. The steals and blocks are the stuff of dreams, and Eason actually had 1.3 blocks per contest in just 19.6 mpg as a freshman at Cincinnati. The jury is still out on the quality of his shooting, as Eason went .241 from deep and .574 at the line with the Bearcats, but even if he can hit average marks the rest of his game is built for fun in the box score.
He’s simply a stat magnet, with the right blend of attributes to make him an on-court contributor. Eason uses his quick first step to attack the rack, which helps him generate lots of trips to the line (hitting those average marks might be more important than you think at first), and plays with an intensity that puts him all over passing lanes and the glass. Smart enough to anchor a defense at center and versatile enough to check the other four positions, Eason looks like a very impactful fantasy player if his development continues on its current trajectory.
AJ Griffin, F, Duke
Stats: 24.0 mpg, 10.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.8 3-pointers on .493 / .447 / .792 shooting splits
Griffin started in 25 of his 39 appearances at Duke, with some limitations to be expected after he missed serious time in high school because of ankle and knee issues. That lost development time may have played into a more modest role for him at Duke, though it’s not like he was buried in the rotation. Griffin comes into the draft as one of its top shooters, as you can see form his 3-point marksmanship. That came on “just” 3.9 attempts per game, so it’s unclear if that holds up with more usage, but that’s not something that Griffin will get out of the gates anyway. To start out he looks like a 3-and-D contributor who can also score in the mid-range and handle the ball a little bit, showing a willingness to pass for better shots even if he’s not a full-fledged facilitator.
Most of the weak spots of Griffin’s came can be chalked up to inexperience to this point; you’d like to see better defensive fundamentals so he can put that 7’0″ wingspan to better use, and he could improve his play in pick-and-roll actions. Hopefully those come with time, because Griffin already has enough tricks up his sleeve to score in isolation as well as the 3-point prowess to make anyone pay for sagging off. Anyone who scores efficiently will be on the fantasy radar but how Griffin’s development proceeds will be the determining factor for his fantasy ceiling.
Walker Kessler, C, Auburn
Stats: 25.6 mpg, 12.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 4.6 blocks, 0.3 3-pointers on .608 / .200 / .596 shooting splits
Kessler didn’t play a ton but he sure made an impact, especially on the defensive end of the floor. After playing just 8.8 mpg as a freshman and notching 0.9 swats per contest, those numbers somehow improved on a per-minute basis. Kessler is as good as it gets as a rim protector and won’t even need a ton of minutes to become a fantasy force if this kind of production carries over at the next level. He’s limited, in the vein of other non-shooting centers whose free throw struggles might keep them off the floor in crunch time, but has shown better as a 3-point threat at lower levels. If Kessler can improve that, watch out. The shot-blocking potential already gives him elite upside, though he’ll need to overcome substandard explosiveness and add a little bit more to his offensive game in order to get there.
Josh Minott, F, Memphis
Stats: 14.6 mpg, 6.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 0.1 3-pointers on .522 / .143 / .754 shooting splits
Minott is a bit of an odd prospect; a blank canvas that you can project almost anything onto. One on hand, he’s a 6’8″ swingman who shines in the advanced stats with a strong steal rate and good rebounding numbers (given the context of playing next to Jalen Duren). On the other, he’s a 19-year-old freshman who can’t shoot from distance that ended up at the end of the rotation by the end of the season. A bit of a gambler on defense, Minott plays tight and can often rely on his long arms and quick hands to make stops that other players simply cannot, putting him on the positive side of the ledger despite some questionable decisions.
Offensively, Minott’s jumper is lost in the wilderness as every attempt looks different than the last. He’s a solid inside scorer but is going to have to extend his range to make it in the NBA. If the 3-pointer never comes around, he’s stuck as an undersized big man. If it does, the world starts to open up, especially when you account for his playmaking potential. Inconsistent playing time hurt his development, but a team should be willing to roll the dice on an active, high-motor player with great physical attributes and flashes of a well-rounded game.
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